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SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

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SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

1% chance
Polymarket
NEW
1% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,239
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ET
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990). This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met: - An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs. If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No” The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,239
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 7:53 PM ET
Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990). This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met: - An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs. If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No” The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 23, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.