Strava’s most recent priced round at $2.2 billion in May 2025 continues to anchor trader expectations for its IPO closing market cap, even as the company has shown strong user growth past 200 million athletes and mobile revenue exceeding $175 million so far in 2026. The confidential S-1 filing from early 2026 has not yet produced a public registration or firm timeline, leaving room for debate over whether the listing will occur at a modest premium to the last mark or command a higher multiple driven by subscription momentum and fitness-platform comparables. With the 2B–3B and 7B–10B outcomes nearly tied, the market reflects uncertainty around final pricing, broader IPO conditions, and how much of the revenue trajectory will be credited at debut. Recent developments such as API tightening and board additions signal IPO readiness, yet the absence of updated valuation data keeps probabilities tightly contested.