Strava’s last priced round at $2.2 billion in May 2025 anchors the leading 2B–3B outcome at 29 percent, while the 7B–10B bucket at 25.1 percent reflects trader bets on stronger public multiples if revenue nears $500 million and user growth to roughly 200 million athletes continues. The confidential S-1 filed in February 2026 has not yet produced a public registration or priced offering, leaving timing and disclosure risks that keep the market split. Recent mobile IAP momentum and API tightening signal monetization progress, yet broader consumer-tech IPO sentiment and questions over subscription conversion from the free user base create the tight spread. A public filing or clearer revenue update could quickly separate the ranges.