Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Strava IPO closing market cap of $2B–$3B at 44.5% implied probability, closely tracking the fitness platform's $2.2 billion private valuation from its May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. This positioning stems from Strava's confidential draft registration statement submission announced February 2, 2026, following an early January filing reported by The Information, coupled with ongoing investor roadshows as of mid-March that signal a potential spring public debut led by Goldman Sachs. Robust subscription revenue growth—driven by 150 million registered users, Gen Z run club trends, and enhanced engagement features—bolsters moderate upside expectations, though competitive pressures from apps like Nike Run Club and broader market caution cap enthusiasm for $4B+ outcomes below 20%. Traders eye the public S-1 filing and pricing window as key near-term catalysts amid a selective IPO environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2B–3B 45%
<2B 19%
3B–4B 11%
4B–5B 11%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<2B
15%
2B–3B
45%
3B–4B
19%
4B–5B
13%
5B–7B
6%
7B–10B
5%
10B–15B
6%
15B+
2%
No IPO before 2028
7%
2B–3B 45%
<2B 19%
3B–4B 11%
4B–5B 11%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<2B
$0 Vol.
15%
2B–3B
$0 Vol.
45%
3B–4B
$0 Vol.
19%
4B–5B
$0 Vol.
13%
5B–7B
$785 Vol.
6%
7B–10B
$0 Vol.
5%
10B–15B
$1,485 Vol.
6%
15B+
$0 Vol.
2%
No IPO before 2028
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Strava IPO closing market cap of $2B–$3B at 44.5% implied probability, closely tracking the fitness platform's $2.2 billion private valuation from its May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. This positioning stems from Strava's confidential draft registration statement submission announced February 2, 2026, following an early January filing reported by The Information, coupled with ongoing investor roadshows as of mid-March that signal a potential spring public debut led by Goldman Sachs. Robust subscription revenue growth—driven by 150 million registered users, Gen Z run club trends, and enhanced engagement features—bolsters moderate upside expectations, though competitive pressures from apps like Nike Run Club and broader market caution cap enthusiasm for $4B+ outcomes below 20%. Traders eye the public S-1 filing and pricing window as key near-term catalysts amid a selective IPO environment.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,269End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Strava IPO closing market cap of $2B–$3B at 44.5% implied probability, closely tracking the fitness platform's $2.2 billion private valuation from its May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. This positioning stems from Strava's confidential draft registration statement submission announced February 2, 2026, following an early January filing reported by The Information, coupled with ongoing investor roadshows as of mid-March that signal a potential spring public debut led by Goldman Sachs. Robust subscription revenue growth—driven by 150 million registered users, Gen Z run club trends, and enhanced engagement features—bolsters moderate upside expectations, though competitive pressures from apps like Nike Run Club and broader market caution cap enthusiasm for $4B+ outcomes below 20%. Traders eye the public S-1 filing and pricing window as key near-term catalysts amid a selective IPO environment.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,269End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Strava IPO closing market cap of $2B–$3B at 44.5% implied probability, closely tracking the fitness platform's $2.2 billion private valuation from its May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. This positioning stems from Strava's confidential draft registration statement submission announced February 2, 2026, following an early January filing reported by The Information, coupled with ongoing investor roadshows as of mid-March that signal a potential spring public debut led by Goldman Sachs. Robust subscription revenue growth—driven by 150 million registered users, Gen Z run club trends, and enhanced engagement features—bolsters moderate upside expectations, though competitive pressures from apps like Nike Run Club and broader market caution cap enthusiasm for $4B+ outcomes below 20%. Traders eye the public S-1 filing and pricing window as key near-term catalysts amid a selective IPO environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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