Strava’s confidential S-1 filing in February 2026 and its last priced round at $2.2 billion anchor trader expectations for a modest IPO valuation, yet the spread across 2B–3B and 7B–10B outcomes shows uncertainty over final pricing multiples and timing. With no public registration statement filed as of October 2026 and revenue estimates near $400–500 million, traders weigh steady user growth and profitability against broader IPO-market conditions and potential delays into 2027. A public S-1 or strong earnings update could quickly shift probabilities toward higher ranges, while prolonged market caution would reinforce the lower band or raise odds of no IPO before 2028.