January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.05–1.09ºC 100.0%
<1.00ºC <1%
1.00–1.04ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
$1,054,169 Vol.
$1,054,169 Vol.
Feb 10, 2026
<1.00ºC
$124,483 Vol.
No
1.00–1.04ºC
$195,558 Vol.
No
1.05–1.09ºC
$176,193 Vol.
Yes
1.10–1.14ºC
$185,917 Vol.
No
1.15–1.19ºC
$143,587 Vol.
No
>1.19ºC
$228,431 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,054,169End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.05–1.09ºC 100.0%
<1.00ºC <1%
1.00–1.04ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
$1,054,169 Vol.
$1,054,169 Vol.
Feb 10, 2026
<1.00ºC
$124,483 Vol.
No
1.00–1.04ºC
$195,558 Vol.
No
1.05–1.09ºC
$176,193 Vol.
Yes
1.10–1.14ºC
$185,917 Vol.
No
1.15–1.19ºC
$143,587 Vol.
No
>1.19ºC
$228,431 Vol.
No
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