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January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

NEW

>1.19ºC 41%

1.15–1.19ºC 38%

1.05–1.09ºC 35%

1.00–1.04ºC 31%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$2
End Date
Feb 10, 2026
Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTC
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NEW
Market icon

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

>1.19ºC 41%

1.15–1.19ºC 38%

1.05–1.09ºC 35%

1.00–1.04ºC 31%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

<1.00ºC

$2 Vol.

29%

1.00–1.04ºC

$0 Vol.

31%

1.05–1.09ºC

$0 Vol.

35%

1.10–1.14ºC

$0 Vol.

31%

1.15–1.19ºC

$0 Vol.

38%

>1.19ºC

$0 Vol.

41%

About

Volume
$2
End Date
Feb 10, 2026
Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.