Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 21–22°C for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 5, aligning with the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 21.5°C under partly cloudy conditions and moderate westerly winds. This reflects typical early-April eastern Mediterranean variability, where cooler sea surface temperatures around 17°C fuel onshore sea breezes that cap daytime heating beneath a weak subtropical ridge. Key differentiators include subtle model spreads on cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing—greater insolation and delayed onshore flow favor 22°C, while increased mid-level clouds or earlier winds nudge toward 21°C or 20°C. Fresh model runs and IMS updates expected overnight will sharpen these market-implied odds prior to official airport observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 5?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 5?
22°C 29%
21°C 28%
20°C 22%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
9%
20°C
22%
21°C
28%
22°C
29%
23°C
13%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
1%
22°C 29%
21°C 28%
20°C 22%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
16°C or below
$1,127 Vol.
1%
17°C
$720 Vol.
1%
18°C
$216 Vol.
4%
19°C
$131 Vol.
9%
20°C
$593 Vol.
22%
21°C
$176 Vol.
28%
22°C
$153 Vol.
29%
23°C
$107 Vol.
13%
24°C
$94 Vol.
4%
25°C
$156 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$275 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 21–22°C for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 5, aligning with the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 21.5°C under partly cloudy conditions and moderate westerly winds. This reflects typical early-April eastern Mediterranean variability, where cooler sea surface temperatures around 17°C fuel onshore sea breezes that cap daytime heating beneath a weak subtropical ridge. Key differentiators include subtle model spreads on cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing—greater insolation and delayed onshore flow favor 22°C, while increased mid-level clouds or earlier winds nudge toward 21°C or 20°C. Fresh model runs and IMS updates expected overnight will sharpen these market-implied odds prior to official airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,748End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 21–22°C for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 5, aligning with the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 21.5°C under partly cloudy conditions and moderate westerly winds. This reflects typical early-April eastern Mediterranean variability, where cooler sea surface temperatures around 17°C fuel onshore sea breezes that cap daytime heating beneath a weak subtropical ridge. Key differentiators include subtle model spreads on cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing—greater insolation and delayed onshore flow favor 22°C, while increased mid-level clouds or earlier winds nudge toward 21°C or 20°C. Fresh model runs and IMS updates expected overnight will sharpen these market-implied odds prior to official airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,748End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 21–22°C for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 5, aligning with the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 21.5°C under partly cloudy conditions and moderate westerly winds. This reflects typical early-April eastern Mediterranean variability, where cooler sea surface temperatures around 17°C fuel onshore sea breezes that cap daytime heating beneath a weak subtropical ridge. Key differentiators include subtle model spreads on cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing—greater insolation and delayed onshore flow favor 22°C, while increased mid-level clouds or earlier winds nudge toward 21°C or 20°C. Fresh model runs and IMS updates expected overnight will sharpen these market-implied odds prior to official airport observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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