Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service confirmations of at least 185 tornadoes through multiple major outbreaks from March 5–16, including deadly EF3 events in the March 5–7 outbreak across Oklahoma and Missouri, and prolific EF1–EF2 activity on March 10–12 in the Midwest and Southeast. These stemmed from repeated clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with cold fronts, yielding extreme convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg and strong wind shear ideal for supercells. Far surpassing the long-term March average of about 90 tornadoes, the count includes minor late-month additions like four EF0–EF1s on March 26. Downgrades from ongoing NWS damage surveys represent the only realistic challenge, though the buffer above 149 renders it improbable; final SPC tallies expected early April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in March?
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
150+ 99.3%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
70–99 <1%
$153,222 Vol.
$153,222 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
99%
150+ 99.3%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
70–99 <1%
$153,222 Vol.
$153,222 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
$25,180 Vol.
<1%
70–99
$22,659 Vol.
<1%
100–129
$28,511 Vol.
<1%
130–149
$28,075 Vol.
1%
150+
$48,796 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service confirmations of at least 185 tornadoes through multiple major outbreaks from March 5–16, including deadly EF3 events in the March 5–7 outbreak across Oklahoma and Missouri, and prolific EF1–EF2 activity on March 10–12 in the Midwest and Southeast. These stemmed from repeated clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with cold fronts, yielding extreme convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg and strong wind shear ideal for supercells. Far surpassing the long-term March average of about 90 tornadoes, the count includes minor late-month additions like four EF0–EF1s on March 26. Downgrades from ongoing NWS damage surveys represent the only realistic challenge, though the buffer above 149 renders it improbable; final SPC tallies expected early April.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$153,222End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service confirmations of at least 185 tornadoes through multiple major outbreaks from March 5–16, including deadly EF3 events in the March 5–7 outbreak across Oklahoma and Missouri, and prolific EF1–EF2 activity on March 10–12 in the Midwest and Southeast. These stemmed from repeated clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with cold fronts, yielding extreme convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg and strong wind shear ideal for supercells. Far surpassing the long-term March average of about 90 tornadoes, the count includes minor late-month additions like four EF0–EF1s on March 26. Downgrades from ongoing NWS damage surveys represent the only realistic challenge, though the buffer above 149 renders it improbable; final SPC tallies expected early April.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$153,222End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.2% implied probability, driven by National Weather Service confirmations of at least 185 tornadoes through multiple major outbreaks from March 5–16, including deadly EF3 events in the March 5–7 outbreak across Oklahoma and Missouri, and prolific EF1–EF2 activity on March 10–12 in the Midwest and Southeast. These stemmed from repeated clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with cold fronts, yielding extreme convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg and strong wind shear ideal for supercells. Far surpassing the long-term March average of about 90 tornadoes, the count includes minor late-month additions like four EF0–EF1s on March 26. Downgrades from ongoing NWS damage surveys represent the only realistic challenge, though the buffer above 149 renders it improbable; final SPC tallies expected early April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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