Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in short-range forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and ICON models, projecting Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 5 at 21-23°C amid mild early-spring conditions under an upper-level ridge. The 22°C lead (37.5% implied probability) stems from ensemble means around 22°C, while 21°C (30.5%) gains from ICON's slightly cooler bias and potential early cloud cover from an approaching cold front bringing showers and possible thunderstorms later Easter Sunday. Differentiators include model spreads on insolation—full sun could push 23°C (22.5%), partial clouds cap at 21°C—and frontal timing; overnight updates and morning soundings will sharpen resolution using Wunderground data from station EDDM. Historical April highs average 13°C, underscoring this warm anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on April 5?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 5?
22°C 33%
21°C 28%
23°C 23%
24°C or higher 10.4%
$37,916 Vol.
$37,916 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
28%
22°C
33%
23°C
23%
24°C or higher
10%
22°C 33%
21°C 28%
23°C 23%
24°C or higher 10.4%
$37,916 Vol.
$37,916 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
14°C or below
$3,902 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,076 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,378 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,275 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,634 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,343 Vol.
2%
20°C
$4,225 Vol.
5%
21°C
$3,554 Vol.
28%
22°C
$3,745 Vol.
33%
23°C
$3,459 Vol.
23%
24°C or higher
$4,344 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in short-range forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and ICON models, projecting Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 5 at 21-23°C amid mild early-spring conditions under an upper-level ridge. The 22°C lead (37.5% implied probability) stems from ensemble means around 22°C, while 21°C (30.5%) gains from ICON's slightly cooler bias and potential early cloud cover from an approaching cold front bringing showers and possible thunderstorms later Easter Sunday. Differentiators include model spreads on insolation—full sun could push 23°C (22.5%), partial clouds cap at 21°C—and frontal timing; overnight updates and morning soundings will sharpen resolution using Wunderground data from station EDDM. Historical April highs average 13°C, underscoring this warm anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$37,916End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in short-range forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and ICON models, projecting Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 5 at 21-23°C amid mild early-spring conditions under an upper-level ridge. The 22°C lead (37.5% implied probability) stems from ensemble means around 22°C, while 21°C (30.5%) gains from ICON's slightly cooler bias and potential early cloud cover from an approaching cold front bringing showers and possible thunderstorms later Easter Sunday. Differentiators include model spreads on insolation—full sun could push 23°C (22.5%), partial clouds cap at 21°C—and frontal timing; overnight updates and morning soundings will sharpen resolution using Wunderground data from station EDDM. Historical April highs average 13°C, underscoring this warm anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,916End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in short-range forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and ICON models, projecting Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 5 at 21-23°C amid mild early-spring conditions under an upper-level ridge. The 22°C lead (37.5% implied probability) stems from ensemble means around 22°C, while 21°C (30.5%) gains from ICON's slightly cooler bias and potential early cloud cover from an approaching cold front bringing showers and possible thunderstorms later Easter Sunday. Differentiators include model spreads on insolation—full sun could push 23°C (22.5%), partial clouds cap at 21°C—and frontal timing; overnight updates and morning soundings will sharpen resolution using Wunderground data from station EDDM. Historical April highs average 13°C, underscoring this warm anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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