Recent polls in battleground Republican-held seats, including a March 26 Carolina Journal survey showing Democrat Roy Cooper leading 49%-41% in North Carolina's open race and a March 16 Quantus poll with Ohio's special election tied at 46%-44%, have fueled trader consensus for GOP net losses of four to six seats from their current 53-seat majority, clustering probabilities around 47-49 Republican seats post-midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans with 22 defenses in red states, midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, retirements like Thom Tillis, and a tight generic ballot (Democrats +2 per Reuters/Ipsos) sustain the contest. Primaries like Texas's March 3 (John Cornyn advance), economic trends, immigration policy execution, and further polling could widen separations ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated51 seats
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 12%
$2,044,185 Vol.
$2,044,185 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
14%
49
22%
50
12%
51
10%
52
7%
53
7%
54
3%
55
2%
56
1%
57+
1%
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 12%
$2,044,185 Vol.
$2,044,185 Vol.
≤47
$27,243 Vol.
26%
48
$14,717 Vol.
14%
49
$10,628 Vol.
22%
50
$59,581 Vol.
12%
51
$154,219 Vol.
10%
52
$502,407 Vol.
7%
53
$10,259 Vol.
7%
54
$706,168 Vol.
3%
55
$391,042 Vol.
2%
56
$138,698 Vol.
1%
57+
$29,222 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls in battleground Republican-held seats, including a March 26 Carolina Journal survey showing Democrat Roy Cooper leading 49%-41% in North Carolina's open race and a March 16 Quantus poll with Ohio's special election tied at 46%-44%, have fueled trader consensus for GOP net losses of four to six seats from their current 53-seat majority, clustering probabilities around 47-49 Republican seats post-midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans with 22 defenses in red states, midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, retirements like Thom Tillis, and a tight generic ballot (Democrats +2 per Reuters/Ipsos) sustain the contest. Primaries like Texas's March 3 (John Cornyn advance), economic trends, immigration policy execution, and further polling could widen separations ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,044,185Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polls in battleground Republican-held seats, including a March 26 Carolina Journal survey showing Democrat Roy Cooper leading 49%-41% in North Carolina's open race and a March 16 Quantus poll with Ohio's special election tied at 46%-44%, have fueled trader consensus for GOP net losses of four to six seats from their current 53-seat majority, clustering probabilities around 47-49 Republican seats post-midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans with 22 defenses in red states, midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, retirements like Thom Tillis, and a tight generic ballot (Democrats +2 per Reuters/Ipsos) sustain the contest. Primaries like Texas's March 3 (John Cornyn advance), economic trends, immigration policy execution, and further polling could widen separations ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,044,185Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls in battleground Republican-held seats, including a March 26 Carolina Journal survey showing Democrat Roy Cooper leading 49%-41% in North Carolina's open race and a March 16 Quantus poll with Ohio's special election tied at 46%-44%, have fueled trader consensus for GOP net losses of four to six seats from their current 53-seat majority, clustering probabilities around 47-49 Republican seats post-midterms. Despite a map favoring Republicans with 22 defenses in red states, midterm headwinds against President Trump's party, retirements like Thom Tillis, and a tight generic ballot (Democrats +2 per Reuters/Ipsos) sustain the contest. Primaries like Texas's March 3 (John Cornyn advance), economic trends, immigration policy execution, and further polling could widen separations ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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