Speaker Mike Johnson retains the gavel in a narrowly divided Republican House, where hardline conservatives have repeatedly disrupted floor proceedings and forced procedural concessions on spending and other priorities. Recent actions include canceling sessions in September 2026 to sidestep contentious votes, such as on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Midterm polling trends point to a likely Democratic majority in the 120th Congress, which would end Johnson’s speakership regardless of internal GOP dynamics. Traders assign low implied probability to an earlier departure before year-end dates, reflecting the absence of a viable removal mechanism and Johnson’s success in securing reelection earlier in the term amid similar challenges. Scheduled legislative deadlines and the November elections remain the main near-term catalysts.