House Speaker Mike Johnson’s position remains precarious due to the Republican Party’s narrow majority in the chamber, which limits his ability to pass legislation without risking defections from hardline members. Ongoing internal divisions have complicated efforts to advance key bills, including recent measures tied to government funding and homeland security, prompting Johnson to balance competing factions within his caucus. Rules changes adopted at the start of the 119th Congress raised the threshold for a motion to vacate, providing some procedural protection, yet attendance challenges from members focused on the 2026 midterms further constrain reliable vote margins. Traders in the prediction market weigh these structural pressures against the possibility of a leadership change before year-end if legislative gridlock intensifies or midterm results alter the House balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
$101,656 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
28%
$101,656 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$5,601 Vol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$2,719 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.House Speaker Mike Johnson’s position remains precarious due to the Republican Party’s narrow majority in the chamber, which limits his ability to pass legislation without risking defections from hardline members. Ongoing internal divisions have complicated efforts to advance key bills, including recent measures tied to government funding and homeland security, prompting Johnson to balance competing factions within his caucus. Rules changes adopted at the start of the 119th Congress raised the threshold for a motion to vacate, providing some procedural protection, yet attendance challenges from members focused on the 2026 midterms further constrain reliable vote margins. Traders in the prediction market weigh these structural pressures against the possibility of a leadership change before year-end if legislative gridlock intensifies or midterm results alter the House balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 11:50 AM ET
Volume
$101,656End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 11:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.House Speaker Mike Johnson’s position remains precarious due to the Republican Party’s narrow majority in the chamber, which limits his ability to pass legislation without risking defections from hardline members. Ongoing internal divisions have complicated efforts to advance key bills, including recent measures tied to government funding and homeland security, prompting Johnson to balance competing factions within his caucus. Rules changes adopted at the start of the 119th Congress raised the threshold for a motion to vacate, providing some procedural protection, yet attendance challenges from members focused on the 2026 midterms further constrain reliable vote margins. Traders in the prediction market weigh these structural pressures against the possibility of a leadership change before year-end if legislative gridlock intensifies or midterm results alter the House balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$101,656End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 11:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...House Speaker Mike Johnson’s position remains precarious due to the Republican Party’s narrow majority in the chamber, which limits his ability to pass legislation without risking defections from hardline members. Ongoing internal divisions have complicated efforts to advance key bills, including recent measures tied to government funding and homeland security, prompting Johnson to balance competing factions within his caucus. Rules changes adopted at the start of the 119th Congress raised the threshold for a motion to vacate, providing some procedural protection, yet attendance challenges from members focused on the 2026 midterms further constrain reliable vote margins. Traders in the prediction market weigh these structural pressures against the possibility of a leadership change before year-end if legislative gridlock intensifies or midterm results alter the House balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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