**Recent developments center on the November 3, 2026 midterm elections and the risk that Republicans lose their narrow House majority.** Speaker Mike Johnson has led a slim GOP conference amid internal tensions over legislative priorities and repeated floor setbacks earlier in the year. On October 8, he publicly acknowledged uncertainty about his political future if Democrats regain control, stating he does not know his “next chapter” and floating a possible return to Louisiana rather than serving as minority leader. Johnson has countered with intensive fundraising—raising a record $156 million this cycle—and a nationwide campaign swing through competitive districts. A Democratic majority would install new leadership, most likely Hakeem Jeffries, ending Johnson’s speakership upon the new Congress convening in January 2027. No active motion to vacate or immediate internal challenge has surfaced in recent weeks. Traders therefore focus primarily on polling trends in battleground districts and any late shifts in voter sentiment before Election Day.