**The Colombia presidential runoff on June 21 remains exceptionally close, with trader consensus pricing a narrow de la Espriella win by 5-10 points as the leading specific outcome while assigning roughly even odds to “Other” scenarios.** Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider who surprised with 43.7% in the May 31 first round, faces Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact, who took 40.9%. The 2.84-point first-round gap, record turnout, and absence of an outright majority have left the contest polarized between de la Espriella’s hardline security platform (military-led anti-crime measures, coca fumigation) and Cepeda’s continuation of “total peace” negotiations alongside progressive economic policies. Eliminated centrist candidates split their support—Paloma Valencia backed de la Espriella while Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López stayed neutral—leaving undecided and crossover voters as the decisive bloc. Cepeda has moderated by distancing himself from a constituent assembly proposal to broaden his appeal. U.S. President Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella has added external attention but also drawn domestic accusations of interference. With only days until voting, recent polling and the structural divide between security-focused and progressive blocs keep the race within a narrow band, consistent with the market’s emphasis on small margins or non-de la Espriella outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSegunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia: margen de victoria
Segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia: margen de victoria
de la Espriella 0-5% 100.0%
de la Espriella 15%+ <1%
de la Espriella 10-15% <1%
de la Espriella 5-10% <1%
$589,402 Vol.
$589,402 Vol.
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
No
de la Espriella 10-15%
No
de la Espriella 5-10%
No
de la Espriella 0-5%
Sí
Victoria de Cepeda Castro
No
de la Espriella 0-5% 100.0%
de la Espriella 15%+ <1%
de la Espriella 10-15% <1%
de la Espriella 5-10% <1%
$589,402 Vol.
$589,402 Vol.
22 jun 2026
de la Espriella 15%+
$107,441 Vol.
No
de la Espriella 10-15%
$88,560 Vol.
No
de la Espriella 5-10%
$110,828 Vol.
No
de la Espriella 0-5%
$178,502 Vol.
Sí
Victoria de Cepeda Castro
$104,071 Vol.
No
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**The Colombia presidential runoff on June 21 remains exceptionally close, with trader consensus pricing a narrow de la Espriella win by 5-10 points as the leading specific outcome while assigning roughly even odds to “Other” scenarios.**
Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider who surprised with 43.7% in the May 31 first round, faces Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact, who took 40.9%. The 2.84-point first-round gap, record turnout, and absence of an outright majority have left the contest polarized between de la Espriella’s hardline security platform (military-led anti-crime measures, coca fumigation) and Cepeda’s continuation of “total peace” negotiations alongside progressive economic policies.
Eliminated centrist candidates split their support—Paloma Valencia backed de la Espriella while Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López stayed neutral—leaving undecided and crossover voters as the decisive bloc. Cepeda has moderated by distancing himself from a constituent assembly proposal to broaden his appeal. U.S. President Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella has added external attention but also drawn domestic accusations of interference.
With only days until voting, recent polling and the structural divide between security-focused and progressive blocs keep the race within a narrow band, consistent with the market’s emphasis on small margins or non-de la Espriella outcomes.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volumen
$589,402Fecha de finalización
22 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**The Colombia presidential runoff on June 21 remains exceptionally close, with trader consensus pricing a narrow de la Espriella win by 5-10 points as the leading specific outcome while assigning roughly even odds to “Other” scenarios.**
Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider who surprised with 43.7% in the May 31 first round, faces Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact, who took 40.9%. The 2.84-point first-round gap, record turnout, and absence of an outright majority have left the contest polarized between de la Espriella’s hardline security platform (military-led anti-crime measures, coca fumigation) and Cepeda’s continuation of “total peace” negotiations alongside progressive economic policies.
Eliminated centrist candidates split their support—Paloma Valencia backed de la Espriella while Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López stayed neutral—leaving undecided and crossover voters as the decisive bloc. Cepeda has moderated by distancing himself from a constituent assembly proposal to broaden his appeal. U.S. President Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella has added external attention but also drawn domestic accusations of interference.
With only days until voting, recent polling and the structural divide between security-focused and progressive blocs keep the race within a narrow band, consistent with the market’s emphasis on small margins or non-de la Espriella outcomes.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$589,402Fecha de finalización
22 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**The Colombia presidential runoff on June 21 remains exceptionally close, with trader consensus pricing a narrow de la Espriella win by 5-10 points as the leading specific outcome while assigning roughly even odds to “Other” scenarios.** Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider who surprised with 43.7% in the May 31 first round, faces Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact, who took 40.9%. The 2.84-point first-round gap, record turnout, and absence of an outright majority have left the contest polarized between de la Espriella’s hardline security platform (military-led anti-crime measures, coca fumigation) and Cepeda’s continuation of “total peace” negotiations alongside progressive economic policies. Eliminated centrist candidates split their support—Paloma Valencia backed de la Espriella while Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López stayed neutral—leaving undecided and crossover voters as the decisive bloc. Cepeda has moderated by distancing himself from a constituent assembly proposal to broaden his appeal. U.S. President Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella has added external attention but also drawn domestic accusations of interference. With only days until voting, recent polling and the structural divide between security-focused and progressive blocs keep the race within a narrow band, consistent with the market’s emphasis on small margins or non-de la Espriella outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes