A new poll reveals a significant decline in Philippe’s presidential stature, attributed to fading "municipal election effect" and challenges in appealing to working-class voters,

Édouard Philippe dips to 20%3%

A new poll reveals a significant decline in Philippe’s presidential stature, attributed to fading "municipal election effect" and challenges in appealing to working-class voters, leading to a market

Gabriel Attal hints at a strategic agreement with Edouard Philippe to avoid a left-right runoff in 2027

This potential alliance suggested political pragmatism but also underscored the competitive environment, maintaining Attal's

Former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne resigns from Renaissance party functions citing disagreement with Attal's direction

Borne's departure highlighted internal party divisions and may have tempered enthusiasm for Attal, stabilizing but not improving his market

Pravda‑EU reports a new poll with Bardella at 34‑35 % and Le Pen at 32‑33 %, giving the RN a slight boost and nudging the

Marine Le Pen rises to 7%1%

Pravda‑EU reports a new poll with Bardella at 34‑35 % and Le Pen at 32‑33 %, giving the RN a slight boost and nudging the

Renaissance party executive endorses Gabriel Attal as the "natural candidate" for the presidential election

Gabriel Attal rises to 4%1%

The internal party endorsement strengthened Attal's position as the leading candidate, slightly improving his market standing.

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement boosted his visibility and pushed his.

Post‑announcement media surge shows Mélenchon leading left‑wing polls at 12‑13 % – The day after his announcement, poll aggregators placed him at 12‑13 %, reinforcing the

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 9%3%

Post‑announcement media surge shows Mélenchon leading left‑wing polls at 12‑13 % – The day after his announcement, poll aggregators placed him at 12‑13 %, reinforcing the

Mélenchon officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on TF1, reviving his base and nudging his market

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on TF1, reviving his base and nudging his market

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum and pushed the market

Mélenchon’s May 1 rally in Paris draws low turnout and criticism for attacking TotalEnergies, contributing to a slide back to 9 %

Mélenchon’s May 1 rally in Paris draws low turnout and criticism for attacking TotalEnergies, contributing to a slide back to 9 %

David Lisnard formally submits resignation to LR leader Bruno Retailleau and confirms presidential run on national television

David Lisnard rises to 6%1%

This formal break from The Republicans solidified Lisnard’s independent campaign, maintaining a modest increase in market confidence despite the challenges of running without party backing.

David Lisnard quits The Republicans, alleging rigged candidacy process and confirms independent presidential run

David Lisnard rises to 6%1%

Lisnard’s departure from the party and announcement of an independent candidacy sparked a short-term rally in his market odds as he positioned himself outside the established party structure.

David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with over 81% of the vote in the first round

David Lisnard rises to 5%1%

Lisnard’s strong local electoral performance demonstrated his political strength, briefly boosting market confidence in his broader presidential prospects.

Figaro notes that, despite leaving LR, Lisnard continues to push for a “grand primary” and vows to win the presidency, but the lack of broad right‑wing support keeps his odds low

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Figaro notes that, despite leaving LR, Lisnard continues to push for a “grand primary” and vows to win the presidency, but the lack of broad right‑wing support keeps his odds low

New Verian survey after the municipal elections indicates a slight dip in RN enthusiasm, with Le Pen’s standing slipping modestly

Marine Le Pen rises to 7%1%

New Verian survey after the municipal elections indicates a slight dip in RN enthusiasm, with Le Pen’s standing slipping modestly

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and competition from other right candidates

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing her odds down to a new low (no change, but confirms the low level).

On RMC’s “Grandes Gueules”, Lisnard unveils his presidential programme, emphasizing liberal reforms and a “big open primary”, boosting confidence in his campaign

David Lisnard rises to 6%2%

On RMC’s “Grandes Gueules”, Lisnard unveils his presidential programme, emphasizing liberal reforms and a “big open primary”, boosting confidence in his campaign

Reuters cites an Odoxa poll where Bardella’s first‑round lead narrows to 30 % amid rising support for centrist candidates, coinciding with a market trough

Jordan Bardella dips to 23%4%

Reuters cites an Odoxa poll where Bardella’s first‑round lead narrows to 30 % amid rising support for centrist candidates, coinciding with a market trough

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his odds back into the mid‑single digits.

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party

Bruno Retailleau rises to 4%1%

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party tensions and skepticism about his electability

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances,

David Lisnard dips to 2%2%

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances, pushing his odds lower.

Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as The Republicans' candidate for 2027 presidential election

David Lisnard dips to 2%1%

The Republicans party members voted overwhelmingly to designate Retailleau as their candidate without a primary, sidelining Lisnard’s preferred open primary approach and weakening his position within the party.

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” campaign in Lyon, emphasizing identity politics to counter the far‑right, generating a modest rally in his odds

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” campaign in Lyon, emphasizing identity politics to counter the far‑right, generating a modest rally in his odds

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%4%

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Continued positive momentum from his local mandate and public appearances in Toulouse reinforce his image as a serious contender, sustaining his market

Édouard Philippe rises to 24%1%

Continued positive momentum from his local mandate and public appearances in Toulouse reinforce his image as a serious contender, sustaining his market

Le Monde reports that Lisnard’s liberal platform is struggling to gain traction within the right‑wing camp, underscoring the difficulty of his candidacy and prompting a sell‑off

David Lisnard dips to 2%3%

Le Monde reports that Lisnard’s liberal platform is struggling to gain traction within the right‑wing camp, underscoring the difficulty of his candidacy and prompting a sell‑off

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick

David Lisnard dips to 5%3%

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick correction in the market

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in

David Lisnard rises to 8%2%

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in his visibility, pushing the market

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%2%

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited broader appeal despite party endorsement

A Toluna‑Harris poll released in early April shows Le Pen at 32‑33 % behind Bardella, sparking a modest

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%3%

A Toluna‑Harris poll released in early April shows Le Pen at 32‑33 % behind Bardella, sparking a modest

Lisnard formally hands in his resignation letter to LR leader Bruno Retailleau and confirms his presidential run on France 2, cementing his break from the party

David Lisnard rises to 5%1%

Lisnard formally hands in his resignation letter to LR leader Bruno Retailleau and confirms his presidential run on France 2, cementing his break from the party

Lisnard officially quits Les Républicains on France 2’s “20 heures” and confirms his independent candidacy for 2027, sparking a short‑term rally in his market odds

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Lisnard officially quits Les Républicains on France 2’s “20 heures” and confirms his independent candidacy for 2027, sparking a short‑term rally in his market odds

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a

David Lisnard rises to 6%2%

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a move reported by RTL and 20 minutes, which lifted his market odds after a period of stagnation.

Politico reports Bardella publicly questioning France’s commitment to send troops to Ukraine, prompting backlash from pro‑Ukraine groups and lowering his standing among

Jordan Bardella dips to 27%4%

Politico reports Bardella publicly questioning France’s commitment to send troops to Ukraine, prompting backlash from pro‑Ukraine groups and lowering his standing among international‑security‑concerned voters

Municipal elections see the RN win numerous town run‑offs but lose key cities (Marseille, Toulon, Nîmes);

the mixed result lifts Le Pen’s standing ahead of the April 2026 poll

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market

David Lisnard drops to 4%8%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market probability.

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows the RN winning numerous town run‑offs, boosting Le Pen’s perceived momentum ahead of the presidential race

Marine Le Pen dips to 8%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows the RN winning numerous town run‑offs, boosting Le Pen’s perceived momentum ahead of the presidential race

Following his re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026, Philippe’s political profile strengthens significantly, with polls showing a surge in support and renewed confidence

Édouard Philippe jumps to 23%9%

Following his re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026, Philippe’s political profile strengthens significantly, with polls showing a surge in support and renewed confidence in his presidential bid

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks national controversy linking far‑right violence to LFI‑affiliated groups, damaging Mélenchon’s image

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 6%1%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks national controversy linking far‑right violence to LFI‑affiliated groups, damaging Mélenchon’s image

New Odoxa‑Mascaret poll shows former PM Édouard Philippe edging Bardella 52 %‑48 % in a hypothetical second round, the first poll to suggest a possible defeat

Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%6%

New Odoxa‑Mascaret poll shows former PM Édouard Philippe edging Bardella 52 %‑48 % in a hypothetical second round, the first poll to suggest a possible defeat

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks a national controversy linking LFI‑affiliated antifascist groups to the incident, hurting Mélenchon’s standing

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 6%6%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks a national controversy linking LFI‑affiliated antifascist groups to the incident, hurting Mélenchon’s standing

CEIBS “Building Bridges” event features de Villepin as speaker, providing limited media coverage that yields only a modest, temporary uptick in market

Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%1%

CEIBS “Building Bridges” event features de Villepin as speaker, providing limited media coverage that yields only a modest, temporary uptick in market

New poll shows Mélenchon at 7 % support, his lowest since the start of the year, after a series of municipal setbacks (reported by Le Monde, 15 Feb 2026)

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 7%4%

New poll shows Mélenchon at 7 % support, his lowest since the start of the year, after a series of municipal setbacks (reported by Le Monde, 15 Feb 2026)

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 6%6%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated with LFI figures, sparked a national debate and hurt Mélenchon’s standing, contributing to the slide from 12 % to 6 % by Apr 5.

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 10%1%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged ties to Mélenchon‑affiliated groups, caused a modest drop in his market probability.

Retailleau publicly declares his presidential candidacy with a serious campaign launch, aiming to create momentum and a surge in polls;

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%6%

this announcement briefly boosted market confidence

Reuters reports that RN‑backed tax‑hike votes in the 2026 budget and a “stall” in poll momentum dampen Le Pen’s surge, causing the

Marine Le Pen drops to 11%10%

Reuters reports that RN‑backed tax‑hike votes in the 2026 budget and a “stall” in poll momentum dampen Le Pen’s surge, causing the

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%3%

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential contenders

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Marine Le Pen dips to 11%2%

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open

David Lisnard jumps to 8%6%

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open primary, reviving media attention on his candidacy.

Lisnard publicly declares his presidential bid at a Paris event, calling for an “open right‑wing primary” and outlining his platform

David Lisnard rises to 4%2%

Lisnard publicly declares his presidential bid at a Paris event, calling for an “open right‑wing primary” and outlining his platform

Bardella’s demand for a “cordon sanitaire” against LFI in the European Parliament sparks criticism from centrist parties, dampening his appeal among moderate voters

Jordan Bardella dips to 25%3%

Bardella’s demand for a “cordon sanitaire” against LFI in the European Parliament sparks criticism from centrist parties, dampening his appeal among moderate voters

Cluster 17’s January 2026 barometer shows Le Pen’s popularity stable at 38 % while Bardella slips slightly, boosting confidence in her staying power

Marine Le Pen jumps to 21%7%

Cluster 17’s January 2026 barometer shows Le Pen’s popularity stable at 38 % while Bardella slips slightly, boosting confidence in her staying power

Internal doubts and negative media narratives about Philippe’s presidential viability emerge, contributing to a dip in his polling and market

Édouard Philippe dips to 13%3%

Internal doubts and negative media narratives about Philippe’s presidential viability emerge, contributing to a dip in his polling and market

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen drops to 13%9%

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Court hearing resumes after a brief recess, reinforcing the legal cloud over her candidacy and pushing the

Marine Le Pen rises to 14%4%

Court hearing resumes after a brief recess, reinforcing the legal cloud over her candidacy and pushing the

Bardella loses a defamation lawsuit;

Jordan Bardella drops to 28%7%

court upholds Libération’s “ghost parliamentary assistant” headline, reviving past employment‑fraud allegations

Le Pen’s appeal against the conviction begins in Paris, temporarily suspending the ban while the case is heard

Marine Le Pen rises to 10%4%

Le Pen’s appeal against the conviction begins in Paris, temporarily suspending the ban while the case is heard

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Marine Le Pen surges to 22%15%

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Verian/Le Monde poll shows the RN’s popularity rising despite legal woes, with Le Pen’s personal rating holding steady but party support climbing

Marine Le Pen jumps to 20%10%

Verian/Le Monde poll shows the RN’s popularity rising despite legal woes, with Le Pen’s personal rating holding steady but party support climbing

Le Pen’s appeal trial on her 2025 embezzlement conviction opens, putting her eligibility in doubt and prompting a sharp market dip

Marine Le Pen rises to 10%4%

Le Pen’s appeal trial on her 2025 embezzlement conviction opens, putting her eligibility in doubt and prompting a sharp market dip

Gabriel Attal officially announces his 2027 presidential candidacy, triggering political hostilities

Gabriel Attal drops to 5%5%

The formal candidacy announcement intensified political competition and criticism, especially from rival parties, leading to a sharp

Gabriel Attal's group writes to 60,000 business leaders highlighting budgetary successes

Gabriel Attal jumps to 14%5%

This proactive outreach to the business community showcased Attal's leadership and policy achievements, boosting market confidence and causing a

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right,

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right, which revived enthusiasm among left‑wing voters and lifted his.

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” identity campaign, positioning LFI as the defender of multicultural France and drawing new supporters

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” identity campaign, positioning LFI as the defender of multicultural France and drawing new supporters

Éric Ciotti wins the internal leadership vote for The Republicans, defeating Retailleau;

this internal party defeat likely weakened Retailleau’s immediate prospects and contributed to early

De Villepin serves as guest of honor at the 39th Enterprise Days in Sousse, Tunisia, raising his profile but not translating into electoral momentum

Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%

De Villepin serves as guest of honor at the 39th Enterprise Days in Sousse, Tunisia, raising his profile but not translating into electoral momentum

Follow‑up poll by Elabe confirms Bardella’s 35‑37 % first‑round lead, reinforcing his frontrunner status after the Le Pen ruling

Jordan Bardella jumps to 35%8%

Follow‑up poll by Elabe confirms Bardella’s 35‑37 % first‑round lead, reinforcing his frontrunner status after the Le Pen ruling

Philippe calls for strong but controlled use of judicial and administrative means to address issues, demonstrating a law-and-order stance that aimed to consolidate centrist

Édouard Philippe dips to 14%4%

Philippe calls for strong but controlled use of judicial and administrative means to address issues, demonstrating a law-and-order stance that aimed to consolidate centrist support ahead of municipal elections

Philippe publicly distances himself from Emmanuel Macron, emphasizing his independence and criticizing Macron’s leadership on France 2, signaling a strategic break that affected

Édouard Philippe dips to 18%1%

Philippe publicly distances himself from Emmanuel Macron, emphasizing his independence and criticizing Macron’s leadership on France 2, signaling a strategic break that affected his political standing

Egg‑throwing attack on Bardella during a book‑signing in Moissac receives extensive media coverage, raising concerns about security and hurting his momentum

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

Egg‑throwing attack on Bardella during a book‑signing in Moissac receives extensive media coverage, raising concerns about security and hurting his momentum

Mélenchon appears at the 12ᵉ Sommet de l’Économie, meeting three CEOs and unveiling a “pacte productif” to court business leaders

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon appears at the 12ᵉ Sommet de l’Économie, meeting three CEOs and unveiling a “pacte productif” to court business leaders

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a “truqué” (rigged) primary process, dramatically reducing his perceived chances within the traditional right‑wing bloc.

He publicly declares “no longer anything to do” with Les Républicains on BFMTV, denouncing the party’s “rigged” primary process

David Lisnard dips to 4%1%

He publicly declares “no longer anything to do” with Les Républicains on BFMTV, denouncing the party’s “rigged” primary process

Odoxa poll shows Bardella leading every 2027 presidential scenario with ~35 % first‑round support, the widest lead ever recorded

Jordan Bardella rises to 34%3%

Odoxa poll shows Bardella leading every 2027 presidential scenario with ~35 % first‑round support, the widest lead ever recorded

Le Pen publicly declared she “does not renounce at all” the 2027 presidential race, counter‑acting earlier resignation rumours and lifting the

Le Pen publicly declared she “does not renounce at all” the 2027 presidential race, counter‑acting earlier resignation rumours and lifting the

Gabriel Attal publicly advocates for a pension system partially funded by capitalization during a televised debate

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%4%

His push for controversial pension reforms, including capitalized retirement funding, sparked debate and may have alienated some voters, causing a notable

Lisnard officialises his presidential candidacy and quits Les Républicains, announcing he will run as an independent liberal

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard officialises his presidential candidacy and quits Les Républicains, announcing he will run as an independent liberal

Bruno Retailleau officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, emphasizing a new path focused on order, prosperity, and French pride;

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%

this formal declaration marked the start of his campaign and clarified his intentions to the market

Gabriel Attal attends Selectour Congress in South Africa, temporarily stepping back from domestic political debates

Gabriel Attal drops to 10%6%

Attal's brief absence from the French political scene to speak at an international event may have reduced his immediate visibility and momentum, contributing to an early

Édouard Philippe actively campaigns at the Congress of Mayors of France, maintaining high visibility and engaging with local officials, which initially supported his presidential

Édouard Philippe rises to 22%1%

Édouard Philippe actively campaigns at the Congress of Mayors of France, maintaining high visibility and engaging with local officials, which initially supported his presidential prospects

French Council of State’s pending decision on Le Pen’s appeal could overturn her ineligibility, sparking uncertainty and pushing the market down from 16 % to 11 %.

French Council of State’s pending decision on Le Pen’s appeal could overturn her ineligibility, sparking uncertainty and pushing the market down from 16 % to 11 %.

Lisnard signals intention to run for the 2027 presidency, saying he will consider a candidacy if the Republicans hold an open primary

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

Lisnard signals intention to run for the 2027 presidency, saying he will consider a candidacy if the Republicans hold an open primary

David Lisnard signals intention to run for the 2027 presidency, conditional on an open primary by the Republicans

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

Lisnard publicly announced he would consider running if the Republicans held a single open primary for the center-right and right, which introduced uncertainty about his candidacy and contributed to a sharp market

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit support, the lowest of his recent campaigns, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the market.

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the Ukraine war drew condemnation from the Socialist Party and Green allies, temporarily halting the

Mélenchon’s pro‑Russia comments and criticism of Zelensky spark backlash His August 2025 interview in which he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon’s pro‑Russia comments and criticism of Zelensky spark backlash His August 2025 interview in which he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defended Vladimir Putin drew widespread condemnation and a dip in his poll numbers, coinciding with the market’s drop from 18 % to 9 % between Nov 14 and Nov 16.

Mélenchon sparks outrage after calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Vladimir Putin, prompting protests and a dip in his poll numbers

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon sparks outrage after calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Vladimir Putin, prompting protests and a dip in his poll numbers

IFOP‑Fiducial poll shows de Villepin tops list of French people’s favorite political figures but notes he has not announced any presidential candidacy, keeping his election odds

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 5%36%

IFOP‑Fiducial poll shows de Villepin tops list of French people’s favorite political figures but notes he has not announced any presidential candidacy, keeping his election odds low

Le Pen’s party announced Jordan Bardella would lead the RN’s presidential campaign if she remains barred, stabilising expectations and keeping the

Le Pen’s party announced Jordan Bardella would lead the RN’s presidential campaign if she remains barred, stabilising expectations and keeping the

French court rules Marine Le Pen ineligible for office for five years, clearing the way for Bardella as RN’s sole presidential hopeful

Jordan Bardella dips to 31%3%

French court rules Marine Le Pen ineligible for office for five years, clearing the way for Bardella as RN’s sole presidential hopeful

The appeal hearing concluded without a verdict, renewing doubts about her eligibility and pushing the

The appeal hearing concluded without a verdict, renewing doubts about her eligibility and pushing the

A court‑ordered postponement of the appellate decision was announced, giving Le Pen more time to seek further remedies and causing a sharp 7‑point rise (from 8 % to 1 %).

A court‑ordered postponement of the appellate decision was announced, giving Le Pen more time to seek further remedies and causing a sharp 7‑point rise (from 8 % to 1 %).

Le Pen reiterated she would not run if the appellate court confirmed her sentence, dampening expectations and pulling the

Le Pen reiterated she would not run if the appellate court confirmed her sentence, dampening expectations and pulling the

The appeal trial for Le Pen’s European‑assistant‑fund case opened in Paris, reviving hopes she might overturn the five‑year ineligibility and sending the

The appeal trial for Le Pen’s European‑assistant‑fund case opened in Paris, reviving hopes she might overturn the five‑year ineligibility and sending the

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a

David Lisnard drops to 12%5%

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a single‑candidate primary, raising his profile and prompting an early rise in market odds.