Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, driven by persistent political deadlock after the 2024 legislative elections produced a hung parliament and no-confidence votes toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government last week, with François Bayrou now leading a fragile minority administration. Recent polls, such as Elabe's December survey, align closely with Bardella's lead amid National Rally's post-EU election momentum and Marine Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial sidelining her at 8.5%, while Philippe gains as a pragmatic centrist ex-prime minister appealing to Macron-weary voters. The tight race persists due to France's two-round electoral system favoring frontrunners in a fragmented field, with left-wing figures like Mélenchon trailing; separation could come from budget impasse resolutions, snap legislative developments, or unified bloc candidacies before the April 2027 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPróximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,148,351 Vol.
$19,148,351 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau
4%

Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

David Lisnard
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,148,351 Vol.
$19,148,351 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau
4%

Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

David Lisnard
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella at 24.5% and Édouard Philippe at 20.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, driven by persistent political deadlock after the 2024 legislative elections produced a hung parliament and no-confidence votes toppled Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government last week, with François Bayrou now leading a fragile minority administration. Recent polls, such as Elabe's December survey, align closely with Bardella's lead amid National Rally's post-EU election momentum and Marine Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial sidelining her at 8.5%, while Philippe gains as a pragmatic centrist ex-prime minister appealing to Macron-weary voters. The tight race persists due to France's two-round electoral system favoring frontrunners in a fragmented field, with left-wing figures like Mélenchon trailing; separation could come from budget impasse resolutions, snap legislative developments, or unified bloc candidacies before the April 2027 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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