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Elecciones·España

Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?

icon for Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?
Elecciones·España

Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?

Sí

51% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

51% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volumen
$3,241
Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusian regional elections set for May 17, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability against the Popular Party (PP) achieving an absolute majority of 55+ seats in the 109-seat Parliament, driven by recent polls showing incumbent President Juanma Moreno's PP leading at 41-44% but hovering at 53-58 seats. Final surveys from May 11, including NC Report and Sigma Dos, project PP doubling PSOE's projected 27-28 seats amid the Socialists' historic decline to 22-24%, while Vox holds steady at 13-17% (15-19 seats), fragmenting the right-wing vote and creating uncertainty over the final escaños. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, leaving the outcome hinging on turnout and undecided voters in this closely contested race for solo governance.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volumen
$3,241
Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Elecciones en Andalucía: mayoría absoluta del PP?" con 51%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 51¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 16, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?" es "¿Elecciones en Andalucía: mayoría absoluta del PP?" con 51%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.