United Russia commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its entrenched advantages in the parallel voting system—225 proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post single-member constituencies—despite recent VCIOM polls showing party-list support at 29-30% amid economic pressures like rising prices. March 2026 surveys confirm United Russia's lead over fragmented rivals like New People (10%), LDPR (11%), and KPRF (10%), bolstered by administrative resources, state media dominance, electronic primaries concluded in January, and opposition hurdles including CPRF arrests. Kremlin propaganda ramps up to counter softening ratings. Realistic challenges include acute inflation, Ukraine war reversals, or improbable opposition consolidation, with redistricting favoring incumbents including in annexed regions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoRusia Unida (ER) 95.1%
Gente Nueva (NL) 1.4%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) 1.4%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.0%
$893,577 Vol.
$893,577 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
95%
Gente Nueva (NL)
1%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Rusia Unida (ER) 95.1%
Gente Nueva (NL) 1.4%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) 1.4%
Civic Platform (GP) 1.0%
$893,577 Vol.
$893,577 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
$469,929 Vol.
95%
Gente Nueva (NL)
$34,891 Vol.
1%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
$77,272 Vol.
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$76,336 Vol.
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
$128,800 Vol.
1%
Partido Liberal Demócrata de Rusia (LDPR)
$31,501 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$74,847 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its entrenched advantages in the parallel voting system—225 proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post single-member constituencies—despite recent VCIOM polls showing party-list support at 29-30% amid economic pressures like rising prices. March 2026 surveys confirm United Russia's lead over fragmented rivals like New People (10%), LDPR (11%), and KPRF (10%), bolstered by administrative resources, state media dominance, electronic primaries concluded in January, and opposition hurdles including CPRF arrests. Kremlin propaganda ramps up to counter softening ratings. Realistic challenges include acute inflation, Ukraine war reversals, or improbable opposition consolidation, with redistricting favoring incumbents including in annexed regions.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volumen
$893,577Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its entrenched advantages in the parallel voting system—225 proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post single-member constituencies—despite recent VCIOM polls showing party-list support at 29-30% amid economic pressures like rising prices. March 2026 surveys confirm United Russia's lead over fragmented rivals like New People (10%), LDPR (11%), and KPRF (10%), bolstered by administrative resources, state media dominance, electronic primaries concluded in January, and opposition hurdles including CPRF arrests. Kremlin propaganda ramps up to counter softening ratings. Realistic challenges include acute inflation, Ukraine war reversals, or improbable opposition consolidation, with redistricting favoring incumbents including in annexed regions.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$893,577Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its entrenched advantages in the parallel voting system—225 proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post single-member constituencies—despite recent VCIOM polls showing party-list support at 29-30% amid economic pressures like rising prices. March 2026 surveys confirm United Russia's lead over fragmented rivals like New People (10%), LDPR (11%), and KPRF (10%), bolstered by administrative resources, state media dominance, electronic primaries concluded in January, and opposition hurdles including CPRF arrests. Kremlin propaganda ramps up to counter softening ratings. Realistic challenges include acute inflation, Ukraine war reversals, or improbable opposition consolidation, with redistricting favoring incumbents including in annexed regions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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