Predicciones y probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

66% de probabilidad de no

+2.5%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

86% de probabilidad de no

-1.0%

NUEVO

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

93% de probabilidad de sí

-0.1%

$3M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

81% de probabilidad de no

-20.5%

$6.1K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

66% de probabilidad de no

+2.5%

NUEVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

86% de probabilidad de no

-1.0%

Carreras más importantes

mercados más decisivos

$1M Vol

AK Governor

59% Republicano

$518K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$546K Vol

ME Senate

64% Demócrata

-1%

$338K Vol

AK Senate

61% Demócrata

-1%

$122K Vol

IA Senate

59% Republicano

-0%

$1M Vol

AK Governor

59% Republicano

$518K Vol

TX Senate

50% Demócrata

$546K Vol

ME Senate

64% Demócrata

-1%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Todas las carreras

519 mercados

Carrera

Estado

Fav

Nivel

Mostrando 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intermedias 2026

Probabilidades de las elecciones intermedias 2026 — Probabilidades en vivo del mercado de predicción
Mercado	Principales contendientes y nominados	Probabilidades en vivo
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	88%
	Steve Hilton	10%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	30%
	Bernadette Wilson	25%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	16%
	Treg Taylor	7%
	David Bronson	5%
	Click Bishop	4%
	Bill Walker	3%
	Shelley Hughes	1%
	Lisa Murkowski	1%
	Gregg Brelsford	1%
	Destry J. Payne Sr.	1%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Lesil McGuire	1%
	Jessica Faircloth	1%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	66%
	Republican	36%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	56%
	James Talarico (D)	42%
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jay Feely	69%
	Joseph Chaplik	37%
	Brandon Sowers	27%
	Muchelle Ugenti-Rita	26%
	John Trobough	17%
	Kari Lake	10%
	Matt Gress	8%
	Gina Swoboda	6%
	Derrick Gallego	2%
	Todd Graham	1%
	Paul Reevs	1%
	Jason Duey	1%
	Kaitlin Purrington	1%
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner	Micah Lasher	64%
	Alex Bores	37%
	Jack Schlossberg	1%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	94%
	Dan Bilzerian	3%
Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrat	83%
	Republican	15%
	Independent	3%
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Claire Valdez	79%
	Antonio Reynoso	22%
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jackson Lahmeyer	58%
	Mark Tedford	39%
	Nathan Butterfield	4%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republican	54%
	Democrat	43%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	55%
	Jon Husted (R)	43%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	74%
	Independent	22%
	Democrat	1%
North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Roy Cooper (D)	84%
	Michael Whatley (R)	16%
NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner	Cait Conley	75%
	Beth Davidson	22%
	Effie Phillips-Staley	2%
	John Sullivan	2%
	Mike Sacks	1%
	John Cappello	1%
	Peter Chatzky	1%
	Jessica Reinmann	1%
AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner	Mark Lamb	54%
	Jay Feely	5%
	Travis Grantham	4%
UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ben McAdams	87%
	Nate Blouin	13%
Iowa Governor Election Winner	Democrat	62%
	Republican	37%
NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner	Darializa Avila Chevalier	55%
	Adriano Espaillat	47%
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrat	79%
	Republican	23%
LA-05 Republican Primary Winner	Samuel Wyatt	19%
	Michael Echols	16%
	Blake Miguez	6%
	Austin Magee	3%
	Michael Mebruer	3%
NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner	Ritchie Torres	97%
	Michael Blake	2%
	Dalourny Nemorin	1%
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Democrat	56%
	Republican	43%
Kansas Senate Election Winner	Republican	81%
	Democrat	19%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	85%
	Republican	14%
ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Joe Baldacci	69%
	Matthew Dunlap	49%
	Jordan Wood	40%
	Paige Loud	3%
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Ilhan Omar	88%
	Latonya Reeves	9%
CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner	Manny Rutinel	68%
	Shannon Bird	34%
	John Szemler	2%
	Amie Baca-Oehlert	1%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Democrat	53%
	Republican	42%
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Adrian Boafo	76%
	Harry Dunn	13%
	Quincy Bareebe	7%
	Rushern Baker III	3%
	Dave Sundberg	2%
	Heather Luper	1%
	Tracy Starr	1%
	Elldwnia English	1%
	Nicole Williams	1%
	Reuben Collins II	1%
	Walter Kirkland	1%
MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner	April McClain Delaney	82%
	David Trone	19%
Florida Governor Election Winner	Republican	78%
	Democrat	23%
GA-11 Republican Primary Winner	John Cowan	84%
	Rob Adkerson	8%
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner	Howard Steven Rance	39%
	Thomas Chalifoux	30%
	Marcus Carter	12%
	Justin Story	12%
	Jorge Malavet	10%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bridget Brink	80%
	William Lawrence	11%
	Matt Maasdam	9%
	Josh Cowen	2%
	Alexandra Prieditis	2%
	Elyon Badger	1%
	Muhammad Salman Rais	1%
MI-10 Republican Primary Winner	Mike Bouchard	87%
	Robert Lulgjuraj	13%
	Casey Armitage	8%
	Justin Kirk	1%
	Steven Elliott	1%
CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Diana DeGette	64%
	Melat Kiros	35%
	Carter Hanson	6%
	Christopher Oldfield	2%
	Tiffany Rodgers	1%
	Wanda James	1%
VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Elaine Luria	96%
	James Osyf	4%
	Matt Strickler	4%
	Burk Stringfellow	4%
	Nicolaus Sleister	4%
TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner	Justin Pearson	88%
	DeVante Hill	9%
	Steve Cohen	2%
CO-03 Republican Primary Winner	Jeff Hurd	97%
	Hope Scheppelman	2%
NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Grace Meng	89%
	Charles Park	10%
SC-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Nancy Lacore	47%
	Ben Frasier	46%
	Mac Deford	21%
	Max Diaz	8%
	Francina Dantzler	1%
	Matt Fulmer	1%
OK-03 Republican Primary Winner	Frank Lucas	95%
	Wade Burleson	32%
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner	Chris Stigall	68%
	Cody Oshel	17%
	James Ingram	15%
	Nathan Willett	13%
	Gena Ross	8%
	Nathanael Schultz	8%
NY-21 Republican Primary Winner	Anthony Constantino	78%
	Robert Smullen	21%
UT-03 Republican Primary Winner	Celeste Maloy	85%
	Phil Lyman	17%
MD-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Dan Schwartz	94%
	George Walsh	2%
	Randi White	2%
	Victor Guidice	1%
MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Glenn Ivey	100%
	Jonathan White	50%
	Shavonne Hedgepeth	49%
	Jakeya Johnson	49%
	Joseph Gomes	47%
NY-12 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	Lasher <5%	27%
	Bores <5%	24%
	Lasher 5–10%	23%
	Lasher 10–15%	13%
	Schlossberg Wins	8%
	Bores 5%+	8%
	Lasher 15%+	6%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	19%

88%

Steve Hilton

10%

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

30%

Bernadette Wilson

25%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

66%

Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)

36%

56%

James Talarico (D)

42%

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner Jay Feely

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner Micah Lasher

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

94%

Dan Bilzerian

Michigan Governor Election Winner Democrat

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner Claire Valdez

79%

Antonio Reynoso

22%

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner Jackson Lahmeyer

Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican

54%

Democrat

43%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

55%

Jon Husted (R)

43%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

North Carolina Senate Election Winner Roy Cooper (D)

84%

Michael Whatley (R)

16%

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner Cait Conley

75%

Beth Davidson

22%

Effie Phillips-Staley

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner Mark Lamb

54%

Jay Feely

Travis Grantham

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ben McAdams

87%

Nate Blouin

13%

Iowa Governor Election Winner Democrat

62%

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner Darializa Avila Chevalier

37%

55%

Adriano Espaillat

47%

Arizona Governor Election Winner Democrat

79%

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner Samuel Wyatt

23%

NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner Ritchie Torres

97%

Michael Blake

Dalourny Nemorin

Georgia Governor Election Winner Democrat

56%

Kansas Senate Election Winner Republican

43%

81%

Democrat

19%

Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat

85%

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner Joe Baldacci

14%

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner Ilhan Omar

88%

Latonya Reeves

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner Manny Rutinel

Nevada Governor Election Winner Democrat

53%