With Gov. Mike Dunleavy term-limited, Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race draws a crowded field of over 18 candidates into the August 18 top-four primary and subsequent ranked-choice general election, fragmenting trader consensus and keeping top probabilities tightly clustered around former Sen. Tom Begich (25.5%), conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (21.5%), and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (17.1%). Begich's slight edge reflects family name recognition and a February Lake Research poll showing him at 38% first-choice support, while GOP vote-splitting hampers consolidation. Early March fundraising momentum for Taylor ($880,000 raised) and parity in February disclosures for multiple contenders sustain the deadlock; endorsements, Rep. Mary Peltola's entry decision, primary debates, or scandals could drive separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTom Begich 26%
Bernadette Wilson 22%
Treg Taylor 17.0%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 14%
$737,750 Vol.
$737,750 Vol.

Tom Begich
26%

Bernadette Wilson
22%

Treg Taylor
17%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
10%

Click Bishop
7%

Matt Claman
4%

Lisa Murkowski
3%

David Bronson
3%

Bruce Walden
3%

Mary Peltola
3%

Matt Heilala
2%

Hank Kroll
1%

Edna DeVries
1%

Shelley Hughes
1%

Adam Crum
1%

James Parkin
<1%
Tom Begich 26%
Bernadette Wilson 22%
Treg Taylor 17.0%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 14%
$737,750 Vol.
$737,750 Vol.

Tom Begich
26%

Bernadette Wilson
22%

Treg Taylor
17%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
14%

Nancy Dahlstrom
10%

Click Bishop
7%

Matt Claman
4%

Lisa Murkowski
3%

David Bronson
3%

Bruce Walden
3%

Mary Peltola
3%

Matt Heilala
2%

Hank Kroll
1%

Edna DeVries
1%

Shelley Hughes
1%

Adam Crum
1%

James Parkin
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Gov. Mike Dunleavy term-limited, Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race draws a crowded field of over 18 candidates into the August 18 top-four primary and subsequent ranked-choice general election, fragmenting trader consensus and keeping top probabilities tightly clustered around former Sen. Tom Begich (25.5%), conservative activist Bernadette Wilson (21.5%), and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (17.1%). Begich's slight edge reflects family name recognition and a February Lake Research poll showing him at 38% first-choice support, while GOP vote-splitting hampers consolidation. Early March fundraising momentum for Taylor ($880,000 raised) and parity in February disclosures for multiple contenders sustain the deadlock; endorsements, Rep. Mary Peltola's entry decision, primary debates, or scandals could drive separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes