Market icon
Elecciones·Primarias

CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias

Market icon
Elecciones·Primarias

CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias

$20,100 Vol.

2 jun 2026
Polymarket

$20,100 Vol.

Polymarket

Eric Jones

$3,903 Vol.

96%

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Trevor Merrell

$6,280 Vol.

16%

John Wesley Tyler

$554 Vol.

24%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

7%

Sharon Brown

$1,588 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$708 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones dominate trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by their commanding fundraising leads—$1.9 million and $1.7 million cash on hand, respectively, as of late 2025—and Democratic Party endorsements amid a fragmented Republican field with minimal resources. The district's recent redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted boundaries to narrow its D+8 partisan lean slightly but retains Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Candidate filings closed March 6 with certifications finalized March 26, including withdrawals by Trevor Merrell and others, leaving no major shifts in the past 30 days. Early voting begins May 4, potentially amplifying turnout in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$20,100
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones dominate trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by their commanding fundraising leads—$1.9 million and $1.7 million cash on hand, respectively, as of late 2025—and Democratic Party endorsements amid a fragmented Republican field with minimal resources. The district's recent redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted boundaries to narrow its D+8 partisan lean slightly but retains Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Candidate filings closed March 6 with certifications finalized March 26, including withdrawals by Trevor Merrell and others, leaving no major shifts in the past 30 days. Early voting begins May 4, potentially amplifying turnout in this safe Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$20,100
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Eric Jones" con 96%, seguido de "Mike Thompson" con 96%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 96¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias" ha generado $20.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias" es "Eric Jones" con 96%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Mike Thompson" con 96%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "CA-04 Ganadores de las primarias" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.