Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents' net worth exceeding $1 billion—reflecting doubts over ballot qualification and voter passage amid soft polling and mounting opposition. Recent UC Berkeley and Politico surveys from mid-March show plurality support around 50% but with high undecideds, partisan splits (only 52% Democratic backing), and vulnerability to ad campaigns. Signature gathering stalled at 25% of the 875,000 needed by late June per early March reports, while a Hoover Institution study projects a $25 billion net revenue loss from billionaire exodus and forgone income taxes. Five counter-initiatives cleared for circulation in February aim to block it, alongside flagged constitutional hurdles like retroactivity, tempering optimism before the November ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$2,835,713 Vol.
$2,835,713 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Sí
$2,835,713 Vol.
$2,835,713 Vol.
3 nov 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents' net worth exceeding $1 billion—reflecting doubts over ballot qualification and voter passage amid soft polling and mounting opposition. Recent UC Berkeley and Politico surveys from mid-March show plurality support around 50% but with high undecideds, partisan splits (only 52% Democratic backing), and vulnerability to ad campaigns. Signature gathering stalled at 25% of the 875,000 needed by late June per early March reports, while a Hoover Institution study projects a $25 billion net revenue loss from billionaire exodus and forgone income taxes. Five counter-initiatives cleared for circulation in February aim to block it, alongside flagged constitutional hurdles like retroactivity, tempering optimism before the November ballot.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volumen
$2,835,713Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents' net worth exceeding $1 billion—reflecting doubts over ballot qualification and voter passage amid soft polling and mounting opposition. Recent UC Berkeley and Politico surveys from mid-March show plurality support around 50% but with high undecideds, partisan splits (only 52% Democratic backing), and vulnerability to ad campaigns. Signature gathering stalled at 25% of the 875,000 needed by late June per early March reports, while a Hoover Institution study projects a $25 billion net revenue loss from billionaire exodus and forgone income taxes. Five counter-initiatives cleared for circulation in February aim to block it, alongside flagged constitutional hurdles like retroactivity, tempering optimism before the November ballot.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,835,713Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 67.5% implied probability for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act—a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents' net worth exceeding $1 billion—reflecting doubts over ballot qualification and voter passage amid soft polling and mounting opposition. Recent UC Berkeley and Politico surveys from mid-March show plurality support around 50% but with high undecideds, partisan splits (only 52% Democratic backing), and vulnerability to ad campaigns. Signature gathering stalled at 25% of the 875,000 needed by late June per early March reports, while a Hoover Institution study projects a $25 billion net revenue loss from billionaire exodus and forgone income taxes. Five counter-initiatives cleared for circulation in February aim to block it, alongside flagged constitutional hurdles like retroactivity, tempering optimism before the November ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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