With over 93% of actas processed by Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) as of April 17, Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding 17.1% of the first-round presidential vote, leading Roberto Sánchez Palomino at around 12% in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, implying a margin exceeding 5% that trader consensus prices at 89.5%. Early counts showed a razor-thin edge over Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori strengthened in urban and coastal regions as rural ballots from her strongholds were tallied amid logistical delays and unsubstantiated fraud claims. No candidate nears 50% for outright victory, setting a June 7 runoff between the top two, with final ONPE certification pending remaining urban and overseas votes that could narrow the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Perú: margen de victoria
Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Perú: margen de victoria
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 89.5%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 9.3%
Otro <1%
Jorge Nieto <1%
$357,659 Vol.
$357,659 Vol.
12 abr 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
90%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
9%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Otro
1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 89.5%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 9.3%
Otro <1%
Jorge Nieto <1%
$357,659 Vol.
$357,659 Vol.
12 abr 2026
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$8,551 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$10,238 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,928 Vol.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$11,698 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$7,126 Vol.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,263 Vol.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$100,084 Vol.
90%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$134,265 Vol.
9%
Jorge Nieto
$13,425 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$19,551 Vol.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,636 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$6,025 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$28,869 Vol.
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 93% of actas processed by Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) as of April 17, Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding 17.1% of the first-round presidential vote, leading Roberto Sánchez Palomino at around 12% in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, implying a margin exceeding 5% that trader consensus prices at 89.5%. Early counts showed a razor-thin edge over Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori strengthened in urban and coastal regions as rural ballots from her strongholds were tallied amid logistical delays and unsubstantiated fraud claims. No candidate nears 50% for outright victory, setting a June 7 runoff between the top two, with final ONPE certification pending remaining urban and overseas votes that could narrow the gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volumen
$357,659Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 93% of actas processed by Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) as of April 17, Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding 17.1% of the first-round presidential vote, leading Roberto Sánchez Palomino at around 12% in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, implying a margin exceeding 5% that trader consensus prices at 89.5%. Early counts showed a razor-thin edge over Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori strengthened in urban and coastal regions as rural ballots from her strongholds were tallied amid logistical delays and unsubstantiated fraud claims. No candidate nears 50% for outright victory, setting a June 7 runoff between the top two, with final ONPE certification pending remaining urban and overseas votes that could narrow the gap.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$357,659Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 93% of actas processed by Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) as of April 17, Keiko Fujimori holds a commanding 17.1% of the first-round presidential vote, leading Roberto Sánchez Palomino at around 12% in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, implying a margin exceeding 5% that trader consensus prices at 89.5%. Early counts showed a razor-thin edge over Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori strengthened in urban and coastal regions as rural ballots from her strongholds were tallied amid logistical delays and unsubstantiated fraud claims. No candidate nears 50% for outright victory, setting a June 7 runoff between the top two, with final ONPE certification pending remaining urban and overseas votes that could narrow the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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