Democrat Analilia Mejia's projected 20-point margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special election for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward the 20-25% outcome at 82.5% implied probability, aligning with preliminary tallies showing Mejia at 59.5-60% to Hathaway's 40% in the low-turnout contest to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Early results from Essex and Morris counties confirm her double-digit lead, though minor outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots leave an 18% chance for under 20%, per skin-in-the-game assessments. Mejia overperformed 2024 Democratic benchmarks in diverse precincts like Dover and Bloomfield but underperformed in affluent Jewish suburbs such as Millburn amid her progressive stance. Final certification expected soon, barring recounts in tight Passaic towns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
Mejia 20-25% 83%
Mejia <20% 18%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,731 Vol.
$16,731 Vol.
16 abr 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
1%
Mejia 20-25%
83%
Mejia <20%
18%
Other
<1%
Mejia 20-25% 83%
Mejia <20% 18%
Mejia 25-30% <1%
Other <1%
$16,731 Vol.
$16,731 Vol.
16 abr 2026
Mejia 40%+
$875 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,386 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,282 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,398 Vol.
1%
Mejia 20-25%
$2,672 Vol.
83%
Mejia <20%
$2,390 Vol.
18%
Other
$729 Vol.
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's projected 20-point margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special election for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward the 20-25% outcome at 82.5% implied probability, aligning with preliminary tallies showing Mejia at 59.5-60% to Hathaway's 40% in the low-turnout contest to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Early results from Essex and Morris counties confirm her double-digit lead, though minor outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots leave an 18% chance for under 20%, per skin-in-the-game assessments. Mejia overperformed 2024 Democratic benchmarks in diverse precincts like Dover and Bloomfield but underperformed in affluent Jewish suburbs such as Millburn amid her progressive stance. Final certification expected soon, barring recounts in tight Passaic towns.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volumen
$16,731Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's projected 20-point margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special election for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward the 20-25% outcome at 82.5% implied probability, aligning with preliminary tallies showing Mejia at 59.5-60% to Hathaway's 40% in the low-turnout contest to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Early results from Essex and Morris counties confirm her double-digit lead, though minor outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots leave an 18% chance for under 20%, per skin-in-the-game assessments. Mejia overperformed 2024 Democratic benchmarks in diverse precincts like Dover and Bloomfield but underperformed in affluent Jewish suburbs such as Millburn amid her progressive stance. Final certification expected soon, barring recounts in tight Passaic towns.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$16,731Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrat Analilia Mejia's projected 20-point margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special election for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward the 20-25% outcome at 82.5% implied probability, aligning with preliminary tallies showing Mejia at 59.5-60% to Hathaway's 40% in the low-turnout contest to succeed Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Early results from Essex and Morris counties confirm her double-digit lead, though minor outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots leave an 18% chance for under 20%, per skin-in-the-game assessments. Mejia overperformed 2024 Democratic benchmarks in diverse precincts like Dover and Bloomfield but underperformed in affluent Jewish suburbs such as Millburn amid her progressive stance. Final certification expected soon, barring recounts in tight Passaic towns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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