Trader consensus on Peru's 2026 presidential election first-round second place favors Keiko Fujimori at 42.5%, reflecting her enduring fujimorista base and consistent top polling in recent Ipsos and Datum surveys showing her at 10-15% support amid a fragmented field of over 40 candidates. Rafael López Aliaga trails at 27.5%, buoyed by ultraconservative momentum and business endorsements, while Fiorella Molinelli's 16.5% stems from rising centrist appeal in urban areas. Recent catalysts include President Boluarte's sinking approval below 10% fueling anti-incumbent votes, Fujimori's strategic alliances, and López Aliaga's media visibility; no single frontrunner has broken 20%, heightening second-place volatility ahead of candidate filings in December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKeiko Fujimori 40%
Rafael López Aliaga 24%
Carlos Álvarez 15%
José Williams 14%

Keiko Fujimori
40%

Rafael López Aliaga
24%

Carlos Álvarez
15%

José Williams
14%

Mario Vizcarra
14%

Alfonso López Chau
14%

Fiorella Molinelli
14%

Roberto Chiabra
14%

Enrique Valderrama
14%

George Forsyth
14%

José Luna
13%

Carlos Espá
13%

Jorge Nieto
13%

César Acuña
13%

Vladimir Cerrón
13%

Yonhy Lescano
13%

Marisol Pérez Tello
13%

Wolfgang Grozo
13%

Mesías Guevara
12%

Ricardo Belmont
12%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
12%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
12%

Fernando Olivera
10%
Keiko Fujimori 40%
Rafael López Aliaga 24%
Carlos Álvarez 15%
José Williams 14%

Keiko Fujimori
40%

Rafael López Aliaga
24%

Carlos Álvarez
15%

José Williams
14%

Mario Vizcarra
14%

Alfonso López Chau
14%

Fiorella Molinelli
14%

Roberto Chiabra
14%

Enrique Valderrama
14%

George Forsyth
14%

José Luna
13%

Carlos Espá
13%

Jorge Nieto
13%

César Acuña
13%

Vladimir Cerrón
13%

Yonhy Lescano
13%

Marisol Pérez Tello
13%

Wolfgang Grozo
13%

Mesías Guevara
12%

Ricardo Belmont
12%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
12%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
12%

Fernando Olivera
10%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's 2026 presidential election first-round second place favors Keiko Fujimori at 42.5%, reflecting her enduring fujimorista base and consistent top polling in recent Ipsos and Datum surveys showing her at 10-15% support amid a fragmented field of over 40 candidates. Rafael López Aliaga trails at 27.5%, buoyed by ultraconservative momentum and business endorsements, while Fiorella Molinelli's 16.5% stems from rising centrist appeal in urban areas. Recent catalysts include President Boluarte's sinking approval below 10% fueling anti-incumbent votes, Fujimori's strategic alliances, and López Aliaga's media visibility; no single frontrunner has broken 20%, heightening second-place volatility ahead of candidate filings in December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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