Israel’s October 27 Knesset election serves as the immediate catalyst for trader assessments of when Benjamin Netanyahu will leave the premiership. Recent polling shows his Likud-led bloc averaging roughly 52–55 seats against 50–53 for the opposition centered on Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, with neither side projected to reach the 61-seat threshold required for a stable majority. Netanyahu has framed the contest around security credentials and warnings of pre-election threats, while facing persistent criticism over October 7, 2023 failures and ongoing multi-front conflicts. Post-election coalition negotiations, possible minority arrangements, or a return to the polls could extend his tenure as caretaker prime minister or shift him to opposition leader, depending on whether smaller parties clear the threshold and how Arab-list abstentions factor into government formation.