Trader consensus prices a 66.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures including the 2025–2026 nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse and the rial's plunge, which authorities suppressed through massacres and regained control by mid-January. Despite Israeli airstrikes on Tehran Basij units on March 12 and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this month, no widespread uprising or IRGC defection has materialized, with the regime mobilizing forces—including child soldiers—to maintain order. Ongoing US-Israel military actions have degraded capabilities but failed to trigger regime change, aligning with historical patterns of survival under sanctions and conflict, though negotiations or further escalations could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$11,855,192 Vol.
$11,855,192 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$11,855,192 Vol.
$11,855,192 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 66.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures including the 2025–2026 nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse and the rial's plunge, which authorities suppressed through massacres and regained control by mid-January. Despite Israeli airstrikes on Tehran Basij units on March 12 and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this month, no widespread uprising or IRGC defection has materialized, with the regime mobilizing forces—including child soldiers—to maintain order. Ongoing US-Israel military actions have degraded capabilities but failed to trigger regime change, aligning with historical patterns of survival under sanctions and conflict, though negotiations or further escalations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$11,855,192Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 66.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures including the 2025–2026 nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse and the rial's plunge, which authorities suppressed through massacres and regained control by mid-January. Despite Israeli airstrikes on Tehran Basij units on March 12 and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this month, no widespread uprising or IRGC defection has materialized, with the regime mobilizing forces—including child soldiers—to maintain order. Ongoing US-Israel military actions have degraded capabilities but failed to trigger regime change, aligning with historical patterns of survival under sanctions and conflict, though negotiations or further escalations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,855,197Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 66.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures including the 2025–2026 nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse and the rial's plunge, which authorities suppressed through massacres and regained control by mid-January. Despite Israeli airstrikes on Tehran Basij units on March 12 and reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this month, no widespread uprising or IRGC defection has materialized, with the regime mobilizing forces—including child soldiers—to maintain order. Ongoing US-Israel military actions have degraded capabilities but failed to trigger regime change, aligning with historical patterns of survival under sanctions and conflict, though negotiations or further escalations could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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