Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its institutional resilience amid the 2025-2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war with U.S. and Israeli strikes that targeted military infrastructure and internal security forces. Nationwide uprisings sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025 were met with harsh crackdowns, including mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into revolution. Following reported leadership disruptions—potentially including Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—and a smooth transition, the regime stabilized without IRGC defections or unified opposition. Recent U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 amid ceasefire negotiations adds economic pressure but underscores traders' view of enduring stability through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,563,075 Vol.
$14,563,075 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$14,563,075 Vol.
$14,563,075 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its institutional resilience amid the 2025-2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war with U.S. and Israeli strikes that targeted military infrastructure and internal security forces. Nationwide uprisings sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025 were met with harsh crackdowns, including mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into revolution. Following reported leadership disruptions—potentially including Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—and a smooth transition, the regime stabilized without IRGC defections or unified opposition. Recent U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 amid ceasefire negotiations adds economic pressure but underscores traders' view of enduring stability through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$14,563,075Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its institutional resilience amid the 2025-2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war with U.S. and Israeli strikes that targeted military infrastructure and internal security forces. Nationwide uprisings sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025 were met with harsh crackdowns, including mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into revolution. Following reported leadership disruptions—potentially including Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—and a smooth transition, the regime stabilized without IRGC defections or unified opposition. Recent U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 amid ceasefire negotiations adds economic pressure but underscores traders' view of enduring stability through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$14,563,075Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, driven by its institutional resilience amid the 2025-2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war with U.S. and Israeli strikes that targeted military infrastructure and internal security forces. Nationwide uprisings sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025 were met with harsh crackdowns, including mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into revolution. Following reported leadership disruptions—potentially including Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—and a smooth transition, the regime stabilized without IRGC defections or unified opposition. Recent U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 amid ceasefire negotiations adds economic pressure but underscores traders' view of enduring stability through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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