As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de abril?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$52,714,900 Vol.
$52,714,900 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$52,714,900 Vol.
$52,714,900 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volumen
$52,714,900Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$52,714,900Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes