The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consolidated power under Mojtaba Khamenei and expanded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with no verified internal challenges or factional splits reported since the March succession. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic exchanges in early June 2026 center on sanctions relief and nuclear issues rather than regime instability, while security forces continue to suppress dissent amid economic pressures. Trader consensus on no coup attempt by June 30 reflects this institutional continuity and absence of recent triggers like leadership vacuums or coordinated military defections. A sudden elite rift, large-scale uprising, or external escalation could still shift dynamics before the deadline, though such developments lack supporting indicators in current reporting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,654,246 Vol.
$1,654,246 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,654,246 Vol.
$1,654,246 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consolidated power under Mojtaba Khamenei and expanded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with no verified internal challenges or factional splits reported since the March succession. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic exchanges in early June 2026 center on sanctions relief and nuclear issues rather than regime instability, while security forces continue to suppress dissent amid economic pressures. Trader consensus on no coup attempt by June 30 reflects this institutional continuity and absence of recent triggers like leadership vacuums or coordinated military defections. A sudden elite rift, large-scale uprising, or external escalation could still shift dynamics before the deadline, though such developments lack supporting indicators in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,654,246Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consolidated power under Mojtaba Khamenei and expanded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with no verified internal challenges or factional splits reported since the March succession. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic exchanges in early June 2026 center on sanctions relief and nuclear issues rather than regime instability, while security forces continue to suppress dissent amid economic pressures. Trader consensus on no coup attempt by June 30 reflects this institutional continuity and absence of recent triggers like leadership vacuums or coordinated military defections. A sudden elite rift, large-scale uprising, or external escalation could still shift dynamics before the deadline, though such developments lack supporting indicators in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,654,246Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has consolidated power under Mojtaba Khamenei and expanded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with no verified internal challenges or factional splits reported since the March succession. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic exchanges in early June 2026 center on sanctions relief and nuclear issues rather than regime instability, while security forces continue to suppress dissent amid economic pressures. Trader consensus on no coup attempt by June 30 reflects this institutional continuity and absence of recent triggers like leadership vacuums or coordinated military defections. A sudden elite rift, large-scale uprising, or external escalation could still shift dynamics before the deadline, though such developments lack supporting indicators in current reporting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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