China's centralized governance under the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by President Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated leadership reshuffles and military oversight mechanisms, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These institutional controls, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and policy continuity in foreign affairs and economic management, have sustained the high 96.7% implied probability on the negative outcome. Historical patterns of elite stability in the post-Mao era further align with this assessment. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership transitions or external pressures that test internal cohesion, though such scenarios remain outside current verified developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$128,628 Vol.
$128,628 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$128,628 Vol.
$128,628 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized governance under the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by President Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated leadership reshuffles and military oversight mechanisms, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These institutional controls, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and policy continuity in foreign affairs and economic management, have sustained the high 96.7% implied probability on the negative outcome. Historical patterns of elite stability in the post-Mao era further align with this assessment. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership transitions or external pressures that test internal cohesion, though such scenarios remain outside current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$128,628Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized governance under the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by President Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated leadership reshuffles and military oversight mechanisms, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These institutional controls, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and policy continuity in foreign affairs and economic management, have sustained the high 96.7% implied probability on the negative outcome. Historical patterns of elite stability in the post-Mao era further align with this assessment. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership transitions or external pressures that test internal cohesion, though such scenarios remain outside current verified developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$128,628Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's centralized governance under the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by President Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated leadership reshuffles and military oversight mechanisms, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These institutional controls, combined with extensive domestic surveillance and policy continuity in foreign affairs and economic management, have sustained the high 96.7% implied probability on the negative outcome. Historical patterns of elite stability in the post-Mao era further align with this assessment. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership transitions or external pressures that test internal cohesion, though such scenarios remain outside current verified developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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