Trader consensus prices "No" at 62.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May's end, driven by Iran's effective blockade since early March 2026 amid escalating US-Israel military actions against its nuclear facilities and retaliatory strikes. Maritime data shows transits down 95% from pre-conflict volumes of around 20 million barrels per day, with over 2,000 vessels stalled, limited permits only for select tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia, and war-risk insurance premiums surging to 3-10% of vessel value. No diplomatic de-escalation or ceasefire signals have emerged despite UN appeals and US President Trump's threats, while analysts warn of prolonged supply chain turmoil even post-reopening, sustaining doubts over timely recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
NUEVO
$28,321 Vol.
NUEVO
$28,321 Vol.
31 may 2026
NUEVO
$28,321 Vol.
NUEVO
$28,321 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices "No" at 62.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May's end, driven by Iran's effective blockade since early March 2026 amid escalating US-Israel military actions against its nuclear facilities and retaliatory strikes. Maritime data shows transits down 95% from pre-conflict volumes of around 20 million barrels per day, with over 2,000 vessels stalled, limited permits only for select tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia, and war-risk insurance premiums surging to 3-10% of vessel value. No diplomatic de-escalation or ceasefire signals have emerged despite UN appeals and US President Trump's threats, while analysts warn of prolonged supply chain turmoil even post-reopening, sustaining doubts over timely recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volumen
$28,321Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices "No" at 62.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May's end, driven by Iran's effective blockade since early March 2026 amid escalating US-Israel military actions against its nuclear facilities and retaliatory strikes. Maritime data shows transits down 95% from pre-conflict volumes of around 20 million barrels per day, with over 2,000 vessels stalled, limited permits only for select tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia, and war-risk insurance premiums surging to 3-10% of vessel value. No diplomatic de-escalation or ceasefire signals have emerged despite UN appeals and US President Trump's threats, while analysts warn of prolonged supply chain turmoil even post-reopening, sustaining doubts over timely recovery.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$28,321Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 62.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May's end, driven by Iran's effective blockade since early March 2026 amid escalating US-Israel military actions against its nuclear facilities and retaliatory strikes. Maritime data shows transits down 95% from pre-conflict volumes of around 20 million barrels per day, with over 2,000 vessels stalled, limited permits only for select tankers carrying Iranian oil to Asia, and war-risk insurance premiums surging to 3-10% of vessel value. No diplomatic de-escalation or ceasefire signals have emerged despite UN appeals and US President Trump's threats, while analysts warn of prolonged supply chain turmoil even post-reopening, sustaining doubts over timely recovery.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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