A two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026, halting airstrikes after U.S. and Israeli operations degraded Tehran's missile capabilities since late February, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened for commercial shipping. A separate 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce began April 16, despite mutual accusations of violations against Hezbollah positions. President Trump has signaled potential permanent de-escalation talks via Pakistani mediators, amid Iran's claims of strategic victory and U.S. assertions of regime weakening. These diplomatic pauses drive trader focus on resolution timelines, with ceasefire expirations and negotiation outcomes key risks for renewed escalation or enduring peace.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$44,425,101 Vol.
7 abr 2026
7 de abril
91%
15 de abril
91%
30 de abril
93%
15 de mayo
96%
30 de junio
98%
31 de diciembre
99%
$44,425,101 Vol.
7 de abril
$16,001,664 Vol.
91%
15 de abril
$9,500,360 Vol.
91%
30 de abril
$4,095,564 Vol.
93%
15 de mayo
$3,478,736 Vol.
96%
30 de junio
$3,016,845 Vol.
98%
31 de diciembre
$3,169,411 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026, halting airstrikes after U.S. and Israeli operations degraded Tehran's missile capabilities since late February, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened for commercial shipping. A separate 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce began April 16, despite mutual accusations of violations against Hezbollah positions. President Trump has signaled potential permanent de-escalation talks via Pakistani mediators, amid Iran's claims of strategic victory and U.S. assertions of regime weakening. These diplomatic pauses drive trader focus on resolution timelines, with ceasefire expirations and negotiation outcomes key risks for renewed escalation or enduring peace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volumen
$44,425,101Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026, halting airstrikes after U.S. and Israeli operations degraded Tehran's missile capabilities since late February, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened for commercial shipping. A separate 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce began April 16, despite mutual accusations of violations against Hezbollah positions. President Trump has signaled potential permanent de-escalation talks via Pakistani mediators, amid Iran's claims of strategic victory and U.S. assertions of regime weakening. These diplomatic pauses drive trader focus on resolution timelines, with ceasefire expirations and negotiation outcomes key risks for renewed escalation or enduring peace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$44,425,101Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026, halting airstrikes after U.S. and Israeli operations degraded Tehran's missile capabilities since late February, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened for commercial shipping. A separate 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce began April 16, despite mutual accusations of violations against Hezbollah positions. President Trump has signaled potential permanent de-escalation talks via Pakistani mediators, amid Iran's claims of strategic victory and U.S. assertions of regime weakening. These diplomatic pauses drive trader focus on resolution timelines, with ceasefire expirations and negotiation outcomes key risks for renewed escalation or enduring peace.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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