A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has temporarily halted major airstrikes following the US-Israel campaign launched February 28 that targeted Iranian military sites, air defenses, and government facilities across Tehran, Isfahan, and other cities. The truce remains under strain amid Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing low-level Iranian missile strikes on US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent a broader deal by April 22. No additional countries beyond the US and Israel have conducted direct strikes on Iran in the past 30 days, though UK bases facilitated some operations; traders monitor ceasefire expiration, diplomatic talks, and regional retaliation risks for potential escalation involving Gulf states.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
$1,479,274 Vol.
15 abr 2026
15 de abril
2%
30 de abril
7%
$1,479,274 Vol.
15 de abril
$1,054,646 Vol.
2%
30 de abril
$424,629 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has temporarily halted major airstrikes following the US-Israel campaign launched February 28 that targeted Iranian military sites, air defenses, and government facilities across Tehran, Isfahan, and other cities. The truce remains under strain amid Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing low-level Iranian missile strikes on US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent a broader deal by April 22. No additional countries beyond the US and Israel have conducted direct strikes on Iran in the past 30 days, though UK bases facilitated some operations; traders monitor ceasefire expiration, diplomatic talks, and regional retaliation risks for potential escalation involving Gulf states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,479,274Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has temporarily halted major airstrikes following the US-Israel campaign launched February 28 that targeted Iranian military sites, air defenses, and government facilities across Tehran, Isfahan, and other cities. The truce remains under strain amid Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing low-level Iranian missile strikes on US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent a broader deal by April 22. No additional countries beyond the US and Israel have conducted direct strikes on Iran in the past 30 days, though UK bases facilitated some operations; traders monitor ceasefire expiration, diplomatic talks, and regional retaliation risks for potential escalation involving Gulf states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$1,479,274Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, 2026, has temporarily halted major airstrikes following the US-Israel campaign launched February 28 that targeted Iranian military sites, air defenses, and government facilities across Tehran, Isfahan, and other cities. The truce remains under strain amid Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing low-level Iranian missile strikes on US allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and President Trump's warnings of renewed military action absent a broader deal by April 22. No additional countries beyond the US and Israel have conducted direct strikes on Iran in the past 30 days, though UK bases facilitated some operations; traders monitor ceasefire expiration, diplomatic talks, and regional retaliation risks for potential escalation involving Gulf states.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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