Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations for a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine gray-zone military drills in April. US intelligence assessments as recent as March reaffirmed Beijing harbors no imminent invasion plans, while the Balikatan exercises ending May 8 underscored robust US-Philippines deterrence with missile deployments nearby. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit discussions highlight Taiwan without escalation signals, amid China's economic strains and intervention risks from Washington alliances. Realistic shifts would require sudden triggers like a maritime blockade or miscalculation in cross-strait tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$7,816,632 Vol.
$7,816,632 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$7,816,632 Vol.
$7,816,632 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations for a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine gray-zone military drills in April. US intelligence assessments as recent as March reaffirmed Beijing harbors no imminent invasion plans, while the Balikatan exercises ending May 8 underscored robust US-Philippines deterrence with missile deployments nearby. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit discussions highlight Taiwan without escalation signals, amid China's economic strains and intervention risks from Washington alliances. Realistic shifts would require sudden triggers like a maritime blockade or miscalculation in cross-strait tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$7,816,632Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations for a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine gray-zone military drills in April. US intelligence assessments as recent as March reaffirmed Beijing harbors no imminent invasion plans, while the Balikatan exercises ending May 8 underscored robust US-Philippines deterrence with missile deployments nearby. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit discussions highlight Taiwan without escalation signals, amid China's economic strains and intervention risks from Washington alliances. Realistic shifts would require sudden triggers like a maritime blockade or miscalculation in cross-strait tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$7,816,632Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army preparations for a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, despite routine gray-zone military drills in April. US intelligence assessments as recent as March reaffirmed Beijing harbors no imminent invasion plans, while the Balikatan exercises ending May 8 underscored robust US-Philippines deterrence with missile deployments nearby. Ongoing Trump-Xi summit discussions highlight Taiwan without escalation signals, amid China's economic strains and intervention risks from Washington alliances. Realistic shifts would require sudden triggers like a maritime blockade or miscalculation in cross-strait tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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