Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of mobilization indicators since Beijing's large-scale PLA drills in May 2024, which encircled the island in response to President Lai Ching-te's inauguration but quickly de-escalated without escalation signals. Ongoing cross-strait gray-zone pressures like aircraft incursions persist, yet formidable deterrents—including U.S. arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances such as AUKUS, and Taiwan's increased defense spending—reinforce stability. Beijing prioritizes domestic economic challenges over risky amphibious assault, with PLA modernization timelines extending beyond 2026 per assessments. Potential shifters include a Taiwan independence move, U.S. diplomatic rupture, or abrupt leadership change in China.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$1,813,580 Vol.
$1,813,580 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$1,813,580 Vol.
$1,813,580 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of mobilization indicators since Beijing's large-scale PLA drills in May 2024, which encircled the island in response to President Lai Ching-te's inauguration but quickly de-escalated without escalation signals. Ongoing cross-strait gray-zone pressures like aircraft incursions persist, yet formidable deterrents—including U.S. arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances such as AUKUS, and Taiwan's increased defense spending—reinforce stability. Beijing prioritizes domestic economic challenges over risky amphibious assault, with PLA modernization timelines extending beyond 2026 per assessments. Potential shifters include a Taiwan independence move, U.S. diplomatic rupture, or abrupt leadership change in China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,813,580Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of mobilization indicators since Beijing's large-scale PLA drills in May 2024, which encircled the island in response to President Lai Ching-te's inauguration but quickly de-escalated without escalation signals. Ongoing cross-strait gray-zone pressures like aircraft incursions persist, yet formidable deterrents—including U.S. arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances such as AUKUS, and Taiwan's increased defense spending—reinforce stability. Beijing prioritizes domestic economic challenges over risky amphibious assault, with PLA modernization timelines extending beyond 2026 per assessments. Potential shifters include a Taiwan independence move, U.S. diplomatic rupture, or abrupt leadership change in China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,813,580Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of mobilization indicators since Beijing's large-scale PLA drills in May 2024, which encircled the island in response to President Lai Ching-te's inauguration but quickly de-escalated without escalation signals. Ongoing cross-strait gray-zone pressures like aircraft incursions persist, yet formidable deterrents—including U.S. arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances such as AUKUS, and Taiwan's increased defense spending—reinforce stability. Beijing prioritizes domestic economic challenges over risky amphibious assault, with PLA modernization timelines extending beyond 2026 per assessments. Potential shifters include a Taiwan independence move, U.S. diplomatic rupture, or abrupt leadership change in China.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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