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Economía·Tarifas Globales

¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?

Market icon
Economía·Tarifas Globales

¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$114,636 Vol.

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$114,636 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 99.4% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate—steady at 1.40% through March 27—by March 31, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank held Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year) on March 20 for a tenth straight month. This stance aligns with PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy amid stabilizing growth toward the 4.5-5% target, cooling deflation bets, and reduced easing expectations from recent rate market signals and Mideast-driven inflation pressures. With resolution imminent in days and no scheduled operations signaling adjustment, tail risks include surprise weak March data or liquidity strains prompting an ad hoc cut, though such scenarios remain remote.

Polymarket traders price a 99.4% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate—steady at 1.40% through March 27—by March 31, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank held Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year) on March 20 for a tenth straight month. This stance aligns with PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy amid stabilizing growth toward the 4.5-5% target, cooling deflation bets, and reduced easing expectations from recent rate market signals and Mideast-driven inflation pressures. With resolution imminent in days and no scheduled operations signaling adjustment, tail risks include surprise weak March data or liquidity strains prompting an ad hoc cut, though such scenarios remain remote.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 99.4% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate—steady at 1.40% through March 27—by March 31, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank held Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year) on March 20 for a tenth straight month. This stance aligns with PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy amid stabilizing growth toward the 4.5-5% target, cooling deflation bets, and reduced easing expectations from recent rate market signals and Mideast-driven inflation pressures. With resolution imminent in days and no scheduled operations signaling adjustment, tail risks include surprise weak March data or liquidity strains prompting an ad hoc cut, though such scenarios remain remote.

Polymarket traders price a 99.4% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate—steady at 1.40% through March 27—by March 31, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank held Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year) on March 20 for a tenth straight month. This stance aligns with PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy amid stabilizing growth toward the 4.5-5% target, cooling deflation bets, and reduced easing expectations from recent rate market signals and Mideast-driven inflation pressures. With resolution imminent in days and no scheduled operations signaling adjustment, tail risks include surprise weak March data or liquidity strains prompting an ad hoc cut, though such scenarios remain remote.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Recorte de la tasa del Banco Popular de China antes del 31 de marzo?" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 1¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 1% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?" ha generado $114.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 20, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?" es "¿Recorte de la tasa del Banco Popular de China antes del 31 de marzo?" con solo 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Recorte de tasas del Banco Popular de China para el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.