Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the status quo effective rate around 12% under longstanding Section 301 duties imposed in 2018–2019 and retained across administrations. No executive orders, USTR proclamations, or trade representative announcements have broadened hikes in the first months of the Trump administration, despite campaign pledges of 60% tariffs, as implementation demands 30–60 day notices, stakeholder consultations, and WTO compliance reviews. Recent priorities centered on 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada for border security, diverting focus from China. While national security rationales could prompt accelerated changes via presidential memorandum, procedural timelines and diplomatic negotiations make pre-March 31 shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado10
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.4%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$674,488 Vol.
$674,488 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35% o más
<1%
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.4%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$674,488 Vol.
$674,488 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$70,547 Vol.
1%
5–15%
$72,438 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$284,774 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$135,233 Vol.
<1%
35% o más
$111,495 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the status quo effective rate around 12% under longstanding Section 301 duties imposed in 2018–2019 and retained across administrations. No executive orders, USTR proclamations, or trade representative announcements have broadened hikes in the first months of the Trump administration, despite campaign pledges of 60% tariffs, as implementation demands 30–60 day notices, stakeholder consultations, and WTO compliance reviews. Recent priorities centered on 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada for border security, diverting focus from China. While national security rationales could prompt accelerated changes via presidential memorandum, procedural timelines and diplomatic negotiations make pre-March 31 shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$674,488Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the status quo effective rate around 12% under longstanding Section 301 duties imposed in 2018–2019 and retained across administrations. No executive orders, USTR proclamations, or trade representative announcements have broadened hikes in the first months of the Trump administration, despite campaign pledges of 60% tariffs, as implementation demands 30–60 day notices, stakeholder consultations, and WTO compliance reviews. Recent priorities centered on 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada for border security, diverting focus from China. While national security rationales could prompt accelerated changes via presidential memorandum, procedural timelines and diplomatic negotiations make pre-March 31 shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$674,488Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.9%, reflecting the status quo effective rate around 12% under longstanding Section 301 duties imposed in 2018–2019 and retained across administrations. No executive orders, USTR proclamations, or trade representative announcements have broadened hikes in the first months of the Trump administration, despite campaign pledges of 60% tariffs, as implementation demands 30–60 day notices, stakeholder consultations, and WTO compliance reviews. Recent priorities centered on 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada for border security, diverting focus from China. While national security rationales could prompt accelerated changes via presidential memorandum, procedural timelines and diplomatic negotiations make pre-March 31 shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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