Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.7%, driven by the Trump administration's early focus on domestic executive actions like immigration enforcement and energy deregulation since the January 20 inauguration, rather than immediate trade escalations. Current Section 301 tariffs—largely retained from prior administrations—average around 10–12% across product lists, with no new USTR proclamations, investigations, or reciprocal tariff announcements issued in the past 60 days amid ongoing cabinet confirmations and agency transitions. This status quo dominates trader sentiment, reflecting procedural timelines for tariff hikes requiring legal reviews. Potential challenges include a sudden national security-based executive order, stalled bilateral talks, or supply chain disruptions prompting 25%+ adjustments before quarter-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado10
5–15% 96.9%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$672,389 Vol.
$672,389 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35% o más
<1%
5–15% 96.9%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
<5% <1%
$672,389 Vol.
$672,389 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$70,260 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$72,215 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$284,643 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$134,775 Vol.
<1%
35% o más
$110,496 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.7%, driven by the Trump administration's early focus on domestic executive actions like immigration enforcement and energy deregulation since the January 20 inauguration, rather than immediate trade escalations. Current Section 301 tariffs—largely retained from prior administrations—average around 10–12% across product lists, with no new USTR proclamations, investigations, or reciprocal tariff announcements issued in the past 60 days amid ongoing cabinet confirmations and agency transitions. This status quo dominates trader sentiment, reflecting procedural timelines for tariff hikes requiring legal reviews. Potential challenges include a sudden national security-based executive order, stalled bilateral talks, or supply chain disruptions prompting 25%+ adjustments before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$672,389Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.7%, driven by the Trump administration's early focus on domestic executive actions like immigration enforcement and energy deregulation since the January 20 inauguration, rather than immediate trade escalations. Current Section 301 tariffs—largely retained from prior administrations—average around 10–12% across product lists, with no new USTR proclamations, investigations, or reciprocal tariff announcements issued in the past 60 days amid ongoing cabinet confirmations and agency transitions. This status quo dominates trader sentiment, reflecting procedural timelines for tariff hikes requiring legal reviews. Potential challenges include a sudden national security-based executive order, stalled bilateral talks, or supply chain disruptions prompting 25%+ adjustments before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$672,389Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China as of March 31 at 96.7%, driven by the Trump administration's early focus on domestic executive actions like immigration enforcement and energy deregulation since the January 20 inauguration, rather than immediate trade escalations. Current Section 301 tariffs—largely retained from prior administrations—average around 10–12% across product lists, with no new USTR proclamations, investigations, or reciprocal tariff announcements issued in the past 60 days amid ongoing cabinet confirmations and agency transitions. This status quo dominates trader sentiment, reflecting procedural timelines for tariff hikes requiring legal reviews. Potential challenges include a sudden national security-based executive order, stalled bilateral talks, or supply chain disruptions prompting 25%+ adjustments before quarter-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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