Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump invalidating Trump administration tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to process refunds potentially exceeding $130 billion for invalidated "Liberation Day" and related measures. This catalyzed a surge in trader optimism for "Yes," but odds have settled at 52% for "No" due to ongoing delays: no actual refunds—defined as direct payments, credits, or offsets—have been issued, with CBP's portal only 40-80% developed as of mid-March and first payouts eyed for late April. The market hinges on denial of the pending Federal Circuit appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States and consequential refunds by June 30; further administration appeals or procedural holds could favor "No," while early refund issuances would boost "Yes."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$320,855 Vol.
$320,855 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$320,855 Vol.
$320,855 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump invalidating Trump administration tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to process refunds potentially exceeding $130 billion for invalidated "Liberation Day" and related measures. This catalyzed a surge in trader optimism for "Yes," but odds have settled at 52% for "No" due to ongoing delays: no actual refunds—defined as direct payments, credits, or offsets—have been issued, with CBP's portal only 40-80% developed as of mid-March and first payouts eyed for late April. The market hinges on denial of the pending Federal Circuit appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States and consequential refunds by June 30; further administration appeals or procedural holds could favor "No," while early refund issuances would boost "Yes."
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ET
Volumen
$320,855Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump invalidating Trump administration tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to process refunds potentially exceeding $130 billion for invalidated "Liberation Day" and related measures. This catalyzed a surge in trader optimism for "Yes," but odds have settled at 52% for "No" due to ongoing delays: no actual refunds—defined as direct payments, credits, or offsets—have been issued, with CBP's portal only 40-80% developed as of mid-March and first payouts eyed for late April. The market hinges on denial of the pending Federal Circuit appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States and consequential refunds by June 30; further administration appeals or procedural holds could favor "No," while early refund issuances would boost "Yes."
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$320,855Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump invalidating Trump administration tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. Court of International Trade on March 4 ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to process refunds potentially exceeding $130 billion for invalidated "Liberation Day" and related measures. This catalyzed a surge in trader optimism for "Yes," but odds have settled at 52% for "No" due to ongoing delays: no actual refunds—defined as direct payments, credits, or offsets—have been issued, with CBP's portal only 40-80% developed as of mid-March and first payouts eyed for late April. The market hinges on denial of the pending Federal Circuit appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States and consequential refunds by June 30; further administration appeals or procedural holds could favor "No," while early refund issuances would boost "Yes."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes