Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volumen
$3,044Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,044Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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