Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 99.3% for Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, primarily due to the executive branch's dominant authority under Section 232, 301, and IEEPA, which allows unilateral imposition without legislative approval, as reinforced by recent Trump administration signals favoring quick executive orders over bills. The new Republican-led Congress convenes January 3 with narrow majorities focused on debt ceiling talks and budget reconciliation, leaving scant time for tariff legislation amid partisan gridlock. Historical precedent shows Congress rarely originates tariffs, bolstering this market-implied odds. Tail risks include riders on must-pass spending bills before quarter-end, though fiscal cliffs make such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$24,305 Vol.
$24,305 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$24,305 Vol.
$24,305 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
Volumen
$24,305Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$24,305Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 99.3% for Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, primarily due to the executive branch's dominant authority under Section 232, 301, and IEEPA, which allows unilateral imposition without legislative approval, as reinforced by recent Trump administration signals favoring quick executive orders over bills. The new Republican-led Congress convenes January 3 with narrow majorities focused on debt ceiling talks and budget reconciliation, leaving scant time for tariff legislation amid partisan gridlock. Historical precedent shows Congress rarely originates tariffs, bolstering this market-implied odds. Tail risks include riders on must-pass spending bills before quarter-end, though fiscal cliffs make such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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