President-elect Donald Trump's reported preference for former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, following recent interviews and alignment on monetary policy views critical of current Fed independence, has driven trader consensus to imply a 95% probability of his confirmation. Warsh's prior experience as a Fed Governor from 2006-2011 and hawkish stance on inflation resonate with incoming Republican Senate majority leaders positioning for swift approval post-inauguration in January 2025. Confirmation would follow nomination, committee hearings, and floor vote, with historical precedents favoring well-vetted insiders. Potential challenges include Trump pivoting to alternatives like current Governor Christopher Waller or Michelle Bowman amid lobbying from financial circles, unexpected Senate holds, or legal hurdles over Powell's term ending May 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKevin Warsh 95.0%
Michelle Bowman 1.7%
Judy Shelton 1.7%
Rick Reider <1%
$13,236,876 Vol.
$13,236,876 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
<1%
Michelle Bowman
2%
Kevin Warsh 95.0%
Michelle Bowman 1.7%
Judy Shelton 1.7%
Rick Reider <1%
$13,236,876 Vol.
$13,236,876 Vol.
Kevin Warsh
95%
Judy Shelton
2%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Rick Reider
<1%
Michelle Bowman
2%
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...President-elect Donald Trump's reported preference for former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, following recent interviews and alignment on monetary policy views critical of current Fed independence, has driven trader consensus to imply a 95% probability of his confirmation. Warsh's prior experience as a Fed Governor from 2006-2011 and hawkish stance on inflation resonate with incoming Republican Senate majority leaders positioning for swift approval post-inauguration in January 2025. Confirmation would follow nomination, committee hearings, and floor vote, with historical precedents favoring well-vetted insiders. Potential challenges include Trump pivoting to alternatives like current Governor Christopher Waller or Michelle Bowman amid lobbying from financial circles, unexpected Senate holds, or legal hurdles over Powell's term ending May 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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