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Economía·Fed

¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?

Market icon
Economía·Fed

¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?

Sí

25% chance
Polymarket

$647,273 Vol.

Sí

25% chance
Polymarket

$647,273 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second straight meeting, coupled with the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end—signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than any tightening. Supporting this positioning, February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, near the Fed's target amid stable inflation trends, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, underscoring labor market softening that diminishes hike prospects. Key upcoming catalysts include March CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second straight meeting, coupled with the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end—signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than any tightening. Supporting this positioning, February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, near the Fed's target amid stable inflation trends, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, underscoring labor market softening that diminishes hike prospects. Key upcoming catalysts include March CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second straight meeting, coupled with the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end—signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than any tightening. Supporting this positioning, February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, near the Fed's target amid stable inflation trends, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, underscoring labor market softening that diminishes hike prospects. Key upcoming catalysts include March CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second straight meeting, coupled with the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end—signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than any tightening. Supporting this positioning, February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, near the Fed's target amid stable inflation trends, while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, underscoring labor market softening that diminishes hike prospects. Key upcoming catalysts include March CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC meeting.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Subida de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 25¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?" ha generado $647.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 10, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es "¿Subida de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" con 25%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 25% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Aumento de las tasas de la Fed en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.