Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid resilient consumer spending and elevated energy costs, have raised the odds of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike by late 2026 or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch futures pricing. Nevertheless, the 68.5% market-implied probability of no hike throughout 2026 reflects trader consensus that the FOMC will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, preferring a data-dependent hold through the remainder of the year. This outlook aligns with expectations of steady policy under the incoming leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term expiration in May, alongside forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan projecting the next move as a 25 basis point hike only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC dot plot, May CPI release, and nonfarm payrolls data that could shift sentiment if inflation moderates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,180,386 Vol.
$1,180,386 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,180,386 Vol.
$1,180,386 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid resilient consumer spending and elevated energy costs, have raised the odds of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike by late 2026 or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch futures pricing. Nevertheless, the 68.5% market-implied probability of no hike throughout 2026 reflects trader consensus that the FOMC will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, preferring a data-dependent hold through the remainder of the year. This outlook aligns with expectations of steady policy under the incoming leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term expiration in May, alongside forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan projecting the next move as a 25 basis point hike only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC dot plot, May CPI release, and nonfarm payrolls data that could shift sentiment if inflation moderates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,180,386Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid resilient consumer spending and elevated energy costs, have raised the odds of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike by late 2026 or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch futures pricing. Nevertheless, the 68.5% market-implied probability of no hike throughout 2026 reflects trader consensus that the FOMC will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, preferring a data-dependent hold through the remainder of the year. This outlook aligns with expectations of steady policy under the incoming leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term expiration in May, alongside forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan projecting the next move as a 25 basis point hike only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC dot plot, May CPI release, and nonfarm payrolls data that could shift sentiment if inflation moderates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,180,386Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year amid resilient consumer spending and elevated energy costs, have raised the odds of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike by late 2026 or early 2027 according to CME FedWatch futures pricing. Nevertheless, the 68.5% market-implied probability of no hike throughout 2026 reflects trader consensus that the FOMC will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, preferring a data-dependent hold through the remainder of the year. This outlook aligns with expectations of steady policy under the incoming leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term expiration in May, alongside forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan projecting the next move as a 25 basis point hike only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC dot plot, May CPI release, and nonfarm payrolls data that could shift sentiment if inflation moderates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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