Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the December 18, 2024, FOMC dot plot projecting the fed funds rate at a median 3.9% by year-end—well below current 4.25%-4.50% levels amid disinflationary pressures. November CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core PCE nearing the 2% target, while labor market softening (4.2% unemployment) reinforces easing expectations despite robust December nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 jobs. Post-election fiscal stimulus risks have trimmed near-term cut bets but not revived hike odds. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q1 economic data will test this positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$593,077 Vol.
$593,077 Vol.
Sí
$593,077 Vol.
$593,077 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the December 18, 2024, FOMC dot plot projecting the fed funds rate at a median 3.9% by year-end—well below current 4.25%-4.50% levels amid disinflationary pressures. November CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core PCE nearing the 2% target, while labor market softening (4.2% unemployment) reinforces easing expectations despite robust December nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 jobs. Post-election fiscal stimulus risks have trimmed near-term cut bets but not revived hike odds. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q1 economic data will test this positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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