Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 jobs added in May and 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus for unchanged federal funds rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range through the July meeting. The April FOMC decision to hold steady, with notable dissent, reinforced a data-dependent stance that has kept market-implied odds heavily weighted toward pauses. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility only if inflation surprises materially lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
$54,197 Vol.
$54,197 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
$54,197 Vol.
$54,197 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,977 Vol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 jobs added in May and 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus for unchanged federal funds rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range through the July meeting. The April FOMC decision to hold steady, with notable dissent, reinforced a data-dependent stance that has kept market-implied odds heavily weighted toward pauses. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility only if inflation surprises materially lower.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$54,197Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 jobs added in May and 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus for unchanged federal funds rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range through the July meeting. The April FOMC decision to hold steady, with notable dissent, reinforced a data-dependent stance that has kept market-implied odds heavily weighted toward pauses. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility only if inflation surprises materially lower.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$54,197Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 jobs added in May and 4.3% unemployment, anchors trader consensus for unchanged federal funds rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range through the July meeting. The April FOMC decision to hold steady, with notable dissent, reinforced a data-dependent stance that has kept market-implied odds heavily weighted toward pauses. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could introduce volatility only if inflation surprises materially lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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