Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite an 8-4 dissent favoring a cut—amid elevated inflation risks. April CPI data released May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the hottest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers' caution and aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for rates near current levels through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sticky inflation and resilient growth, though a sharp May CPI cooldown on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls could revive cut odds for June 16-17 or July 28-29.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.7%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.5%
$48,715 Vol.
$48,715 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.7%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.5%
$48,715 Vol.
$48,715 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,311 Vol.
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite an 8-4 dissent favoring a cut—amid elevated inflation risks. April CPI data released May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the hottest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers' caution and aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for rates near current levels through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sticky inflation and resilient growth, though a sharp May CPI cooldown on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls could revive cut odds for June 16-17 or July 28-29.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$48,715Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite an 8-4 dissent favoring a cut—amid elevated inflation risks. April CPI data released May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the hottest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers' caution and aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for rates near current levels through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sticky inflation and resilient growth, though a sharp May CPI cooldown on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls could revive cut odds for June 16-17 or July 28-29.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$48,715Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite an 8-4 dissent favoring a cut—amid elevated inflation risks. April CPI data released May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise, the hottest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers' caution and aligning with the March dot plot's median projection for rates near current levels through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects sticky inflation and resilient growth, though a sharp May CPI cooldown on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls could revive cut odds for June 16-17 or July 28-29.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes