Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve holding its policy rate steady through the April, June, and July meetings, driven by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and recent communications signaling patience. Persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will maintain the current Fed funds range rather than ease policy. This consensus reflects the market’s assessment of incoming economic releases and official guidance that continue to favor a wait-and-see approach. A material softening in employment data or a sharper drop in core inflation readings could still open the door to earlier cuts and alter pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve holding its policy rate steady through the April, June, and July meetings, driven by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and recent communications signaling patience. Persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will maintain the current Fed funds range rather than ease policy. This consensus reflects the market’s assessment of incoming economic releases and official guidance that continue to favor a wait-and-see approach. A material softening in employment data or a sharper drop in core inflation readings could still open the door to earlier cuts and alter pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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