Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by softening labor market data offsetting persistent inflation pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting at its April 28-29 session, with Chair Powell signaling caution amid sticky price growth above the 2% target. April nonfarm payrolls rose a below-expectation 115,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing cooling dynamics. Today's April 2026 CPI release—forecast at 3.7% year-over-year—looms as a key catalyst, while CME FedWatch Tool prices near-certainty of a June 16-17 hold. Upcoming data will test if disinflation resumes or prompts hawkish repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$145,054 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de junio
1%
Reunión de julio
7%
Reunión de septiembre
16%
Reunión de octubre
15%
$145,054 Vol.
Reunión de junio
$12,502 Vol.
1%
Reunión de julio
$755 Vol.
7%
Reunión de septiembre
$49 Vol.
16%
Reunión de octubre
$440 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by softening labor market data offsetting persistent inflation pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting at its April 28-29 session, with Chair Powell signaling caution amid sticky price growth above the 2% target. April nonfarm payrolls rose a below-expectation 115,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing cooling dynamics. Today's April 2026 CPI release—forecast at 3.7% year-over-year—looms as a key catalyst, while CME FedWatch Tool prices near-certainty of a June 16-17 hold. Upcoming data will test if disinflation resumes or prompts hawkish repricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$145,054Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by softening labor market data offsetting persistent inflation pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting at its April 28-29 session, with Chair Powell signaling caution amid sticky price growth above the 2% target. April nonfarm payrolls rose a below-expectation 115,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing cooling dynamics. Today's April 2026 CPI release—forecast at 3.7% year-over-year—looms as a key catalyst, while CME FedWatch Tool prices near-certainty of a June 16-17 hold. Upcoming data will test if disinflation resumes or prompts hawkish repricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$145,054Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by softening labor market data offsetting persistent inflation pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting at its April 28-29 session, with Chair Powell signaling caution amid sticky price growth above the 2% target. April nonfarm payrolls rose a below-expectation 115,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing cooling dynamics. Today's April 2026 CPI release—forecast at 3.7% year-over-year—looms as a key catalyst, while CME FedWatch Tool prices near-certainty of a June 16-17 hold. Upcoming data will test if disinflation resumes or prompts hawkish repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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