Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase with core at 2.4% YoY, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward a near-certain 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing price stability above the 2% target, alongside firmer PPI and rebounding retail sales expectations, have reinforced the case for tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Market-implied odds now reflect roughly 87-90% probability of the hike, with futures pricing additional increases later this year amid persistent inflation. The upcoming dot plot and September retail sales release represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$3,452,145 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Reunión de septiembre
88%
Reunión de octubre
91%
$3,452,145 Vol.
Reunión de septiembre
$1,637,567 Vol.
88%
Reunión de octubre
$854,578 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase with core at 2.4% YoY, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward a near-certain 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing price stability above the 2% target, alongside firmer PPI and rebounding retail sales expectations, have reinforced the case for tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Market-implied odds now reflect roughly 87-90% probability of the hike, with futures pricing additional increases later this year amid persistent inflation. The upcoming dot plot and September retail sales release represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$3,452,145Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase with core at 2.4% YoY, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward a near-certain 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing price stability above the 2% target, alongside firmer PPI and rebounding retail sales expectations, have reinforced the case for tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Market-implied odds now reflect roughly 87-90% probability of the hike, with futures pricing additional increases later this year amid persistent inflation. The upcoming dot plot and September retail sales release represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,452,145Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase with core at 2.4% YoY, have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward a near-certain 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing price stability above the 2% target, alongside firmer PPI and rebounding retail sales expectations, have reinforced the case for tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Market-implied odds now reflect roughly 87-90% probability of the hike, with futures pricing additional increases later this year amid persistent inflation. The upcoming dot plot and September retail sales release represent key near-term catalysts that could further shape the rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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