Persistent March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—has driven trader sentiment toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, reversing earlier easing expectations despite the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent. Labor markets remain resilient, with unemployment at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, supporting a cautious policy stance as core inflation exceeds the 2% target. CME FedWatch futures imply rising probabilities for a 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026, reflecting aggregated capital at risk. Key catalysts include April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate the policy path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$144,567 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de junio
1%
Reunión de julio
6%
Reunión de septiembre
16%
Reunión de octubre
16%
$144,567 Vol.
Reunión de junio
$12,062 Vol.
1%
Reunión de julio
$755 Vol.
6%
Reunión de septiembre
$49 Vol.
16%
Reunión de octubre
$392 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—has driven trader sentiment toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, reversing earlier easing expectations despite the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent. Labor markets remain resilient, with unemployment at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, supporting a cautious policy stance as core inflation exceeds the 2% target. CME FedWatch futures imply rising probabilities for a 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026, reflecting aggregated capital at risk. Key catalysts include April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$144,567Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—has driven trader sentiment toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, reversing earlier easing expectations despite the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent. Labor markets remain resilient, with unemployment at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, supporting a cautious policy stance as core inflation exceeds the 2% target. CME FedWatch futures imply rising probabilities for a 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026, reflecting aggregated capital at risk. Key catalysts include April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$144,567Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—has driven trader sentiment toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, reversing earlier easing expectations despite the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent. Labor markets remain resilient, with unemployment at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, supporting a cautious policy stance as core inflation exceeds the 2% target. CME FedWatch futures imply rising probabilities for a 25 basis point hike by year-end 2026, reflecting aggregated capital at risk. Key catalysts include April CPI data on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate the policy path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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