The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—has shifted trader focus toward additional tightening rather than cuts. Updated dot-plot projections showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more quarter-point increase by year-end, with inflation forecasts revised higher to 3.7% PCE for 2026 amid resilient growth and elevated price pressures. Markets now price roughly 90% odds of a December hike and limited scope for near-term easing, with the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings as key near-term catalysts. Treasury yields have risen in response, reflecting the hawkish policy stance and data-dependent path ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoStrong economic data and Fed hike reduce odds of January 2027 rate cut
January 2027 Meeting plunges to 11%39%
The combination of the Fed's September hike and robust economic indicators led to a steep decline in market pricing for a rate cut at the January 2027 meeting, with contract prices falling from 50% to 11%. This reflects a market consensus that cuts in early 2027 are unlikely.
Markets react to Fed rate hike with sharp decline in rate cut probabilities
December 2026 Meeting dips to 3%4%
Following the September 16 rate hike, market prices for rate cuts at the December 2026 and subsequent meetings dropped sharply, reflecting diminished expectations for easing in the near term. This was evident in the December 2026 meeting contract price falling from 7% to 3% and similar declines in other meetings.
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