Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Fed rate cuts. Officials including Waller and Kashkari have signaled additional hikes are likely needed, with September FOMC minutes indicating most participants view another quarter-point increase as appropriate by year-end. Markets currently price near-zero odds of a cut at the October 27-28 meeting and instead assign high probability to a hold followed by a possible December hike, reflecting resilient growth and labor market conditions. The September CPI release on October 14 and the upcoming FOMC decision will provide fresh data points that could shift implied probabilities around the timing of any eventual easing.