Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, including September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with resilient GDP growth and a stable labor market, have kept market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts near zero. The October 28 FOMC decision held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00%, with two dissents favoring a hike and forward guidance emphasizing the need for more data on persistent price pressures. Futures and prediction markets now price roughly 65% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 meeting and assign over 95% probability to no cuts at all in 2026. This path reflects the Fed’s updated median projection of a 4.1% policy rate by year-end and leaves the first 25-basis-point easing most likely around mid-2027.