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Khamenei
Fed decision in January?
$444m Vol.
$11m today
$21m Liq.
1,369
Ends in 6 days
98%
No change
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$240m Vol.
$7m Liq.
611
Ends in 11 months
46%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in March?
$3m Vol.
$259k today
$574k Liq.
418
Ends in about 2 months
79%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$58.1k today
$824k Liq.
30
27%
3 (75 bps)
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$968k Vol.
$55.6k today
$80.5k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 days
Cut–Cut–Pause
What day will Trump announce Fed Chair nominee?
$330k Vol.
$166k Liq.
4
59%
No announcement by Jan 31
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$63.9k Vol.
$179k Liq.
22%
3.0%
Fed rate cut by...?
$428k Vol.
$99.4k Liq.
3
Ends in 5 months
61%
June Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$57.1k Vol.
$15.4k Liq.
7
Ends in 2 months
47%
4.4%
Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?
$324k Vol.
$31.2k Liq.
14
99%
June 30, 2026
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$588k Vol.
$132k Liq.
26
Ends in 4 months
8%
May 14
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?
$97.7k Vol.
$28.8k Liq.
2
1%
How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
$26.4k Vol.
$6.9k Liq.
41%
≤49
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$466k Vol.
$143k Liq.
94%
↓ 3.25%
Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?
$16.9k Vol.
$24.8k Liq.
53%
No change, Dissents: <2
Fed decision in April?
$739k Vol.
$350k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
73%
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?
$25.0k Vol.
$3.3k Liq.
17%
US Strikes Iran
Major rate cut chances under each Fed Chair?
$5.9k Vol.
$98.3k Liq.
24%
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$66.1k Vol.
$11.4k Liq.
December 31
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$21.8k Vol.
$27.6k Liq.
10%
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