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Economía·Negocios

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

Market icon
Economía·Negocios

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

0 (0 bps) 33.4%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 30%

2 (50 puntos básicos) 18%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 8%

Polymarket

$20,084,156 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 33.4%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 30%

2 (50 puntos básicos) 18%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 8%

Polymarket

$20,084,156 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$3,325,738 Vol.

33%

1 (25 puntos básicos)

$1,070,024 Vol.

30%

2 (50 puntos básicos)

$1,041,824 Vol.

18%

3 (75 puntos básicos)

$952,318 Vol.

8%

Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)

$985,523 Vol.

4%

Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)

$1,115,050 Vol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,148,202 Vol.

1%

7 (175 bps)

$959,458 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 puntos básicos)

$1,277,410 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 puntos básicos)

$1,304,618 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 puntos básicos)

$1,807,389 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 puntos básicos)

$2,224,923 Vol.

<1%

Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)

$1,872,272 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus closely pits zero Fed rate cuts at 33.6% against one 25 basis point cut at 29.5% for 2026, driven by March CPI's surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 12.5% energy index spike amid Middle East conflict and stalled Iran peace talks. This tempers the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting a 3.4% end-2026 federal funds rate, implying about 35 basis points of easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs) and steady 4.3% unemployment rate reinforce economic strength, muting cut urgency. Key swing factors include April CPI (early May release) and the April 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance on inflation trajectory and policy path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$20,084,156
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus closely pits zero Fed rate cuts at 33.6% against one 25 basis point cut at 29.5% for 2026, driven by March CPI's surge to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 12.5% energy index spike amid Middle East conflict and stalled Iran peace talks. This tempers the FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projecting a 3.4% end-2026 federal funds rate, implying about 35 basis points of easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs) and steady 4.3% unemployment rate reinforce economic strength, muting cut urgency. Key swing factors include April CPI (early May release) and the April 28-29 FOMC for updated guidance on inflation trajectory and policy path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$20,084,156
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0 (0 bps)" con 33%, seguido de "1 (25 puntos básicos)" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 33¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" ha generado $20.1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 29, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" es "0 (0 bps)" con 33%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1 (25 puntos básicos)" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.