Market icon

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

2 (50 puntos básicos) 28%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 24%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 18%

Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos) 12%

Polymarket

$7,130,020 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$7,130,020
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Creado en
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2 (50 puntos básicos)" at 28%, followed by "3 (75 puntos básicos)" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" has generated $7.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" is "2 (50 puntos básicos)" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3 (75 puntos básicos)" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

2 (50 puntos básicos) 28%

3 (75 puntos básicos) 24%

1 (25 puntos básicos) 18%

Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos) 12%

Polymarket

$7,130,020 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$1,526,276 Vol.

9%

1 (25 puntos básicos)

$517,487 Vol.

18%

2 (50 puntos básicos)

$457,772 Vol.

28%

3 (75 puntos básicos)

$324,510 Vol.

24%

Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)

$322,790 Vol.

12%

Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)

$285,773 Vol.

6%

6 (150 pb)

$1,185,342 Vol.

3%

7 (175 bps)

$362,104 Vol.

1%

8 (200 puntos básicos)

$442,980 Vol.

1%

9 (225 puntos básicos)

$320,929 Vol.

1%

10 (250 puntos básicos)

$324,575 Vol.

1%

11 (275 puntos básicos)

$375,395 Vol.

1%

Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)

$684,087 Vol.

2%

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2 (50 puntos básicos)" at 28%, followed by "3 (75 puntos básicos)" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" has generated $7.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" is "2 (50 puntos básicos)" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3 (75 puntos básicos)" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Cuántos recortes de tasas de la Fed en 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.