Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a $750–1T closing market cap at IPO, anchored by the company's March 31, 2026, $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—the largest private raise on record—bolstered by $25 billion projected 2026 revenue amid enterprise AI demand. However, early April reports of internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push over $121 billion compute commitments by 2028 and profitability delays to 2029, elevate "No IPO by December 31, 2027" to 17%, reflecting execution risks and investor scrutiny on the elevated valuation. Lower brackets like 1T+ at 12.5% signal caution on public market multiples, with key catalysts including regulatory filings and Q2 revenue updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado750B–1T 28%
1T–1.25T 15%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 13%
500–750 mil millones 10%
$15,405 Vol.
$15,405 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
5%
500–750 mil millones
10%
750B–1T
28%
1T–1.25T
12%
1,25T–1,5T
10%
1.5T+
9%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
16%
750B–1T 28%
1T–1.25T 15%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 13%
500–750 mil millones 10%
$15,405 Vol.
$15,405 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$97 Vol.
5%
500–750 mil millones
$245 Vol.
10%
750B–1T
$352 Vol.
28%
1T–1.25T
$3,122 Vol.
12%
1,25T–1,5T
$255 Vol.
10%
1.5T+
$71 Vol.
9%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$11,264 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a $750–1T closing market cap at IPO, anchored by the company's March 31, 2026, $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—the largest private raise on record—bolstered by $25 billion projected 2026 revenue amid enterprise AI demand. However, early April reports of internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push over $121 billion compute commitments by 2028 and profitability delays to 2029, elevate "No IPO by December 31, 2027" to 17%, reflecting execution risks and investor scrutiny on the elevated valuation. Lower brackets like 1T+ at 12.5% signal caution on public market multiples, with key catalysts including regulatory filings and Q2 revenue updates.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$15,405Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a $750–1T closing market cap at IPO, anchored by the company's March 31, 2026, $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—the largest private raise on record—bolstered by $25 billion projected 2026 revenue amid enterprise AI demand. However, early April reports of internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push over $121 billion compute commitments by 2028 and profitability delays to 2029, elevate "No IPO by December 31, 2027" to 17%, reflecting execution risks and investor scrutiny on the elevated valuation. Lower brackets like 1T+ at 12.5% signal caution on public market multiples, with key catalysts including regulatory filings and Q2 revenue updates.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$15,405Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for OpenAI achieving a $750–1T closing market cap at IPO, anchored by the company's March 31, 2026, $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—the largest private raise on record—bolstered by $25 billion projected 2026 revenue amid enterprise AI demand. However, early April reports of internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar challenging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 IPO push over $121 billion compute commitments by 2028 and profitability delays to 2029, elevate "No IPO by December 31, 2027" to 17%, reflecting execution risks and investor scrutiny on the elevated valuation. Lower brackets like 1T+ at 12.5% signal caution on public market multiples, with key catalysts including regulatory filings and Q2 revenue updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes