Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at 31% implied probability, driven by CEO Sam Altman's repeated emphasis on remaining private to pursue AGI without public market pressures, amid a messy cap table with Microsoft's 49% stake and nonprofit governance hurdles. Valuation odds cluster tightly between $500B–$1T (37% combined for top bins), reflecting explosive revenue growth from ChatGPT subscriptions—projected $11B annualized run-rate—but tempered by surging compute costs, regulatory antitrust scrutiny, and intensifying competition from Amazon-backed Anthropic and open-source challengers like Meta's Llama, eroding OpenAI's moat. Key differentiators include proprietary model leads and enterprise deals, yet profitability remains elusive, capping mega-cap hype absent fresh breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 31%
750B–1T 25%
500–750 mil millones 20%
1T–1.25T 17%
<500B
16%
500–750 mil millones
22%
750B–1T
25%
1T–1.25T
17%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1.5T+
17%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
31%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 31%
750B–1T 25%
500–750 mil millones 20%
1T–1.25T 17%
<500B
16%
500–750 mil millones
22%
750B–1T
25%
1T–1.25T
17%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1.5T+
17%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
31%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, at 31% implied probability, driven by CEO Sam Altman's repeated emphasis on remaining private to pursue AGI without public market pressures, amid a messy cap table with Microsoft's 49% stake and nonprofit governance hurdles. Valuation odds cluster tightly between $500B–$1T (37% combined for top bins), reflecting explosive revenue growth from ChatGPT subscriptions—projected $11B annualized run-rate—but tempered by surging compute costs, regulatory antitrust scrutiny, and intensifying competition from Amazon-backed Anthropic and open-source challengers like Meta's Llama, eroding OpenAI's moat. Key differentiators include proprietary model leads and enterprise deals, yet profitability remains elusive, capping mega-cap hype absent fresh breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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