Question 1

What is Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like OpenAI.

Question 2

What types of OpenAI prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket currently hosts 41 active markets for OpenAI that lets you track or trade on predictions like "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de febrero?". Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $13.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Question 3

How do OpenAI markets work on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like "¿Estados Unidos promulga un proyecto de ley de seguridad de IA antes de 2027?". You buy shares in "yes" or "no" outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that's a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de febrero?," you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

Question 4

What is the current top OpenAI prediction?

Accepted Answer

As of today, the most active market is "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de febrero?," where the crowd is currently assigning a 69% chance to Anthropic. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

Question 5

Why use Polymarket for OpenAI predictions?

Accepted Answer

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on OpenAI predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Question 6

How accurate are Polymarket's OpenAI odds?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket's accuracy.

Question 7

Can I track OpenAI predictions without trading?

Accepted Answer

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for OpenAI shift in real-time. It's a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de febrero?" without ever needing to place a trade.

Question 8

How do I get started with OpenAI markets on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the OpenAI prediction markets, and when you're ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Question 9

How are markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the "Rules" section on any individual market page like "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de febrero?," to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

OpenAI predicciones y probabilidades

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