Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by the company's closure of a record $122 billion funding round on March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—easing liquidity pressures and allowing prolonged private agility amid fierce AI competition from Anthropic and xAI. Today's abrupt leadership reshuffle, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and executives citing medical leave, underscores internal pre-IPO preparations but raises continuity concerns, echoing Sam Altman's prior reluctance to helm a public company. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.1%) remain distant due to projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue, Microsoft dependency risks, and Musk lawsuits; watch for Q4 SEC filings as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 65%
1,5 billones+ 9.1%
1.25T–1.5T 8.3%
1 billón–1,25 billones 5.1%
$1,554,222 Vol.
$1,554,222 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
3%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
4%
1 billón–1,25 billones
5%
1.25T–1.5T
8%
1,5 billones+
9%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
65%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 65%
1,5 billones+ 9.1%
1.25T–1.5T 8.3%
1 billón–1,25 billones 5.1%
$1,554,222 Vol.
$1,554,222 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$257,507 Vol.
3%
500–750B
$139,369 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$130,796 Vol.
4%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$173,027 Vol.
5%
1.25T–1.5T
$487,599 Vol.
8%
1,5 billones+
$92,635 Vol.
9%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$273,289 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by the company's closure of a record $122 billion funding round on March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—easing liquidity pressures and allowing prolonged private agility amid fierce AI competition from Anthropic and xAI. Today's abrupt leadership reshuffle, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and executives citing medical leave, underscores internal pre-IPO preparations but raises continuity concerns, echoing Sam Altman's prior reluctance to helm a public company. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.1%) remain distant due to projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue, Microsoft dependency risks, and Musk lawsuits; watch for Q4 SEC filings as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,554,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by the company's closure of a record $122 billion funding round on March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—easing liquidity pressures and allowing prolonged private agility amid fierce AI competition from Anthropic and xAI. Today's abrupt leadership reshuffle, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and executives citing medical leave, underscores internal pre-IPO preparations but raises continuity concerns, echoing Sam Altman's prior reluctance to helm a public company. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.1%) remain distant due to projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue, Microsoft dependency risks, and Musk lawsuits; watch for Q4 SEC filings as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,554,222Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64.5% implied probability, bolstered by the company's closure of a record $122 billion funding round on March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—easing liquidity pressures and allowing prolonged private agility amid fierce AI competition from Anthropic and xAI. Today's abrupt leadership reshuffle, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and executives citing medical leave, underscores internal pre-IPO preparations but raises continuity concerns, echoing Sam Altman's prior reluctance to helm a public company. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.1%) remain distant due to projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue, Microsoft dependency risks, and Musk lawsuits; watch for Q4 SEC filings as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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