Recent reports of tension between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman—who pushes for a Q4 2026 IPO—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given $17 billion FY26 cash burn and $600 billion server CapEx pledges, have entrenched trader consensus on "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 60.5% implied probability. A landmark $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion post-money valuation followed corporate restructuring to ease Microsoft ties and enable public listing, yet high execution risks temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (13.4%). With projected $25 billion 2026 revenue facing Anthropic rivalry and profitability delayed past 2030, markets await S-1 filings or regulatory nods amid volatile AI sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 61%
1,5 billones+ 13.5%
1.25T–1.5T 6.8%
750B–1T 6.3%
$1,569,794 Vol.
$1,569,794 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
5%
500–750B
2%
750B–1T
6%
1 billón–1,25 billones
4%
1.25T–1.5T
7%
1,5 billones+
13%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
61%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 61%
1,5 billones+ 13.5%
1.25T–1.5T 6.8%
750B–1T 6.3%
$1,569,794 Vol.
$1,569,794 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$259,045 Vol.
5%
500–750B
$140,380 Vol.
2%
750B–1T
$133,622 Vol.
6%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$174,218 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$489,078 Vol.
7%
1,5 billones+
$93,647 Vol.
13%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$279,805 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent reports of tension between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman—who pushes for a Q4 2026 IPO—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given $17 billion FY26 cash burn and $600 billion server CapEx pledges, have entrenched trader consensus on "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 60.5% implied probability. A landmark $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion post-money valuation followed corporate restructuring to ease Microsoft ties and enable public listing, yet high execution risks temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (13.4%). With projected $25 billion 2026 revenue facing Anthropic rivalry and profitability delayed past 2030, markets await S-1 filings or regulatory nods amid volatile AI sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,569,794Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Recent reports of tension between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman—who pushes for a Q4 2026 IPO—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given $17 billion FY26 cash burn and $600 billion server CapEx pledges, have entrenched trader consensus on "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 60.5% implied probability. A landmark $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion post-money valuation followed corporate restructuring to ease Microsoft ties and enable public listing, yet high execution risks temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (13.4%). With projected $25 billion 2026 revenue facing Anthropic rivalry and profitability delayed past 2030, markets await S-1 filings or regulatory nods amid volatile AI sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,569,794Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent reports of tension between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman—who pushes for a Q4 2026 IPO—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given $17 billion FY26 cash burn and $600 billion server CapEx pledges, have entrenched trader consensus on "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 60.5% implied probability. A landmark $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion post-money valuation followed corporate restructuring to ease Microsoft ties and enable public listing, yet high execution risks temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (13.4%). With projected $25 billion 2026 revenue facing Anthropic rivalry and profitability delayed past 2030, markets await S-1 filings or regulatory nods amid volatile AI sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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