Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic (53% implied probability) IPOing first, primarily due to its diversified funding from Amazon and Google, which contrasts OpenAI's heavy Microsoft dependence and ongoing governance tensions post-Altman ouster saga. Both remain private with no S-1 filings or official timelines—OpenAI's recent for-profit restructuring and $6.6B tender offer fueled brief hype, but valuation gaps (OpenAI at $157B vs. Anthropic's $18.4B) and AI regulatory scrutiny balance the odds. Decisive catalysts include Q1 2025 funding announcements, developer conference reveals like Claude 4 or GPT-5 roadmaps, or FTC antitrust decisions on Big Tech AI stakes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic
$46,801 Vol.
$46,801 Vol.
Anthropic
$46,801 Vol.
$46,801 Vol.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic (53% implied probability) IPOing first, primarily due to its diversified funding from Amazon and Google, which contrasts OpenAI's heavy Microsoft dependence and ongoing governance tensions post-Altman ouster saga. Both remain private with no S-1 filings or official timelines—OpenAI's recent for-profit restructuring and $6.6B tender offer fueled brief hype, but valuation gaps (OpenAI at $157B vs. Anthropic's $18.4B) and AI regulatory scrutiny balance the odds. Decisive catalysts include Q1 2025 funding announcements, developer conference reveals like Claude 4 or GPT-5 roadmaps, or FTC antitrust decisions on Big Tech AI stakes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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