Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 87.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its soaring $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer and accelerating Starship program milestones, including the successful Flight 5 test in October that caught and reused the Super Heavy booster for the first time. Elon Musk's repeated statements tie a full SpaceX IPO to Starship reliability for Mars missions, aligning trader expectations with a 2026 timeline post-regulatory approvals. xAI trails at 25.5% amid its rapid ascent—$6 billion funding round in May 2024 valuing it at $24 billion, Colossus supercomputer launch as the world's largest AI cluster, and Grok model advancements—positioning it as a high-growth AI contender despite Musk's aversion to near-term public listings. Lower odds for Anthropic and OpenAI reflect their focus on AGI development without concrete IPO signals, while others like Databricks lag on subdued valuation growth. Upcoming Starship Flight 6 and xAI's Grok-3 release could further sway sentiment in this speculative tech IPO landscape.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.5%
Discord <1%
$1,448,121 Vol.
$1,448,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
88%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
5%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Databricks
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 88%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 4.5%
Discord <1%
$1,448,121 Vol.
$1,448,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$174,364 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$292,968 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$200,779 Vol.
5%
Discord
$66,376 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$368,921 Vol.
1%
Databricks
$65,157 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$82,692 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$36,040 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$50,787 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$23,661 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$38,571 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$51,603 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 87.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its soaring $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer and accelerating Starship program milestones, including the successful Flight 5 test in October that caught and reused the Super Heavy booster for the first time. Elon Musk's repeated statements tie a full SpaceX IPO to Starship reliability for Mars missions, aligning trader expectations with a 2026 timeline post-regulatory approvals. xAI trails at 25.5% amid its rapid ascent—$6 billion funding round in May 2024 valuing it at $24 billion, Colossus supercomputer launch as the world's largest AI cluster, and Grok model advancements—positioning it as a high-growth AI contender despite Musk's aversion to near-term public listings. Lower odds for Anthropic and OpenAI reflect their focus on AGI development without concrete IPO signals, while others like Databricks lag on subdued valuation growth. Upcoming Starship Flight 6 and xAI's Grok-3 release could further sway sentiment in this speculative tech IPO landscape.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,448,121Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 87.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its soaring $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer and accelerating Starship program milestones, including the successful Flight 5 test in October that caught and reused the Super Heavy booster for the first time. Elon Musk's repeated statements tie a full SpaceX IPO to Starship reliability for Mars missions, aligning trader expectations with a 2026 timeline post-regulatory approvals. xAI trails at 25.5% amid its rapid ascent—$6 billion funding round in May 2024 valuing it at $24 billion, Colossus supercomputer launch as the world's largest AI cluster, and Grok model advancements—positioning it as a high-growth AI contender despite Musk's aversion to near-term public listings. Lower odds for Anthropic and OpenAI reflect their focus on AGI development without concrete IPO signals, while others like Databricks lag on subdued valuation growth. Upcoming Starship Flight 6 and xAI's Grok-3 release could further sway sentiment in this speculative tech IPO landscape.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,448,121Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at 87.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its soaring $350 billion private valuation from a December 2024 tender offer and accelerating Starship program milestones, including the successful Flight 5 test in October that caught and reused the Super Heavy booster for the first time. Elon Musk's repeated statements tie a full SpaceX IPO to Starship reliability for Mars missions, aligning trader expectations with a 2026 timeline post-regulatory approvals. xAI trails at 25.5% amid its rapid ascent—$6 billion funding round in May 2024 valuing it at $24 billion, Colossus supercomputer launch as the world's largest AI cluster, and Grok model advancements—positioning it as a high-growth AI contender despite Musk's aversion to near-term public listings. Lower odds for Anthropic and OpenAI reflect their focus on AGI development without concrete IPO signals, while others like Databricks lag on subdued valuation growth. Upcoming Starship Flight 6 and xAI's Grok-3 release could further sway sentiment in this speculative tech IPO landscape.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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