Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum despite the March 13 downward revision of Q4 2025 GDP growth to a subdued 0.7% annualized rate from an initial 1.4% estimate. This softening, alongside February unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month recession odds to 30% last week, has tempered optimism, yet low weekly jobless claims at 210,000 and an upward-sloping yield curve—with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.39% versus 2-year at 3.88%—bolster trader consensus for a soft landing. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% aligns with stable inflation trends, while the New York Fed's DSGE model shows a 35.8% recession risk. Key catalysts include April's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming nonfarm payrolls.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
Sí
$913,333 Vol.
$913,333 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Sí
$913,333 Vol.
$913,333 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productPolymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum despite the March 13 downward revision of Q4 2025 GDP growth to a subdued 0.7% annualized rate from an initial 1.4% estimate. This softening, alongside February unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month recession odds to 30% last week, has tempered optimism, yet low weekly jobless claims at 210,000 and an upward-sloping yield curve—with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.39% versus 2-year at 3.88%—bolster trader consensus for a soft landing. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% aligns with stable inflation trends, while the New York Fed's DSGE model shows a 35.8% recession risk. Key catalysts include April's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming nonfarm payrolls.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$913,333Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productPolymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum despite the March 13 downward revision of Q4 2025 GDP growth to a subdued 0.7% annualized rate from an initial 1.4% estimate. This softening, alongside February unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month recession odds to 30% last week, has tempered optimism, yet low weekly jobless claims at 210,000 and an upward-sloping yield curve—with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.39% versus 2-year at 3.88%—bolster trader consensus for a soft landing. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% aligns with stable inflation trends, while the New York Fed's DSGE model shows a 35.8% recession risk. Key catalysts include April's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming nonfarm payrolls.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volumen
$913,333Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient economic momentum despite the March 13 downward revision of Q4 2025 GDP growth to a subdued 0.7% annualized rate from an initial 1.4% estimate. This softening, alongside February unemployment ticking up to 4.4% and Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month recession odds to 30% last week, has tempered optimism, yet low weekly jobless claims at 210,000 and an upward-sloping yield curve—with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.39% versus 2-year at 3.88%—bolster trader consensus for a soft landing. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% aligns with stable inflation trends, while the New York Fed's DSGE model shows a 35.8% recession risk. Key catalysts include April's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming nonfarm payrolls.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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