Polymarket traders' 78% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 9-10 Copom meeting reflects the committee's recent initiation of monetary easing, with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation—February's annual rate eased to 3.81%—and decelerating GDP growth projected near 2% for 2026. Copom minutes released last week urged caution on pace amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict and fiscal risks but signaled openness to continuation or acceleration of cuts, leaving no-change at 21% as a hedge against deanchored inflation expectations, while hikes remain negligible at 1.4%. Traders eye upcoming March inflation data for confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoDisminuir 78%
Sin cambio 21%
Aumento 1.4%
$157,156 Vol.
$157,156 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Aumento
1%
Sin cambio
21%
Disminuir
78%
Disminuir 78%
Sin cambio 21%
Aumento 1.4%
$157,156 Vol.
$157,156 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
Aumento
$88,490 Vol.
1%
Sin cambio
$33,142 Vol.
21%
Disminuir
$35,524 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 78% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 9-10 Copom meeting reflects the committee's recent initiation of monetary easing, with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation—February's annual rate eased to 3.81%—and decelerating GDP growth projected near 2% for 2026. Copom minutes released last week urged caution on pace amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict and fiscal risks but signaled openness to continuation or acceleration of cuts, leaving no-change at 21% as a hedge against deanchored inflation expectations, while hikes remain negligible at 1.4%. Traders eye upcoming March inflation data for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volumen
$157,156Fecha de finalización
Apr 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 78% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 9-10 Copom meeting reflects the committee's recent initiation of monetary easing, with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation—February's annual rate eased to 3.81%—and decelerating GDP growth projected near 2% for 2026. Copom minutes released last week urged caution on pace amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict and fiscal risks but signaled openness to continuation or acceleration of cuts, leaving no-change at 21% as a hedge against deanchored inflation expectations, while hikes remain negligible at 1.4%. Traders eye upcoming March inflation data for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$157,156Fecha de finalización
Apr 28, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' 78% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's April 9-10 Copom meeting reflects the committee's recent initiation of monetary easing, with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation—February's annual rate eased to 3.81%—and decelerating GDP growth projected near 2% for 2026. Copom minutes released last week urged caution on pace amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict and fiscal risks but signaled openness to continuation or acceleration of cuts, leaving no-change at 21% as a hedge against deanchored inflation expectations, while hikes remain negligible at 1.4%. Traders eye upcoming March inflation data for confirmation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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