Polymarket traders are leaning toward a February Japanese unemployment rate of 2.7% at 30.5% implied probability, signaling expectations of a modest uptick from January's 2.6% print amid softening manufacturing activity and cautious hiring in export sectors. This trader consensus reflects broader economic pressures, including the Bank of Japan's recent exit from negative rates, which could temper wage-driven labor demand, alongside global headwinds like China's slowdown curbing demand for Japanese autos and machinery. January's stable 2.6% rate and historical lows near 2.5% underscore structural tightness from demographics, yet wide dispersion across outcomes like ≤2.4% (17.9%) or ≥3.0% (11.0%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the March 28 data release, with job-to-applicant ratios at 1.29 underscoring persistent shortages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado2.7% 34%
≤2.4% 19.0%
≥3.0% 17%
2.8% 16%
$32,753 Vol.
$32,753 Vol.
≤2.4%
19%
2.5%
3%
2.6%
13%
2.7%
33%
2.8%
17%
2.9%
9%
≥3.0%
11%
2.7% 34%
≤2.4% 19.0%
≥3.0% 17%
2.8% 16%
$32,753 Vol.
$32,753 Vol.
≤2.4%
19%
2.5%
3%
2.6%
13%
2.7%
33%
2.8%
17%
2.9%
9%
≥3.0%
11%
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are leaning toward a February Japanese unemployment rate of 2.7% at 30.5% implied probability, signaling expectations of a modest uptick from January's 2.6% print amid softening manufacturing activity and cautious hiring in export sectors. This trader consensus reflects broader economic pressures, including the Bank of Japan's recent exit from negative rates, which could temper wage-driven labor demand, alongside global headwinds like China's slowdown curbing demand for Japanese autos and machinery. January's stable 2.6% rate and historical lows near 2.5% underscore structural tightness from demographics, yet wide dispersion across outcomes like ≤2.4% (17.9%) or ≥3.0% (11.0%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the March 28 data release, with job-to-applicant ratios at 1.29 underscoring persistent shortages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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