Polymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 41.5% implied probability edging 2.6% at 36.6% and 2.5% at 27.0%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's INEGI print held at 2.6%—unchanged from December amid 1.9% year-over-year formal job gains but softening manufacturing activity. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.5-2.6%, buoyed by resilient services employment and nearshoring tailwinds, yet tempered by global demand risks and moderating wage growth pressuring Banxico's high 11% policy rate stance. Key swing factors include seasonal adjustments and IMSS payroll data; resolution hinges on the imminent INEGI release, where sub-2.5% would signal robust disinflation support.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≤2.4% 40%
2.6% 36.8%
2,5% 28%
2.7% <1%
$22,496 Vol.
$22,496 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
40%
2,5%
28%
2.6%
37%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
<1%
2.9%
<1%
≥3.0%
<1%
≤2.4% 40%
2.6% 36.8%
2,5% 28%
2.7% <1%
$22,496 Vol.
$22,496 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
$12,503 Vol.
40%
2,5%
$1,501 Vol.
28%
2.6%
$2,053 Vol.
37%
2.7%
$1,271 Vol.
1%
2.8%
$730 Vol.
<1%
2.9%
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
≥3.0%
$3,041 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$22,496Fecha de finalización
Mar 27, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$22,496Fecha de finalización
Mar 27, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a tight race for Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 41.5% implied probability edging 2.6% at 36.6% and 2.5% at 27.0%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's INEGI print held at 2.6%—unchanged from December amid 1.9% year-over-year formal job gains but softening manufacturing activity. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.5-2.6%, buoyed by resilient services employment and nearshoring tailwinds, yet tempered by global demand risks and moderating wage growth pressuring Banxico's high 11% policy rate stance. Key swing factors include seasonal adjustments and IMSS payroll data; resolution hinges on the imminent INEGI release, where sub-2.5% would signal robust disinflation support.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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