The US unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February 2026, reflecting an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs amid widespread sector losses, marking a shift from prior modest gains and heightening recession concerns among traders. FOMC projections released March 18 held the median Q4 2026 rate steady at 4.4%, aligning with economist consensus for limited further rises to around 4.5% amid cooling but stable labor demand—evidenced by January JOLTS openings at 6.9 million and recent weekly jobless claims steady near 210,000. Key catalysts include the March jobs report due April 4 and April FOMC minutes on the 8th, which could signal policy shifts impacting peak unemployment trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$284,170 Vol.
Jan 10, 2026
5,0%
60%
5.5%
34%
6.0%
18%
7.0%
15%
10,0%
7%
$284,170 Vol.
5,0%
$74,423 Vol.
60%
5.5%
$174,371 Vol.
34%
6.0%
$0 Vol.
18%
7.0%
$16,436 Vol.
15%
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$18,940 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The US unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February 2026, reflecting an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs amid widespread sector losses, marking a shift from prior modest gains and heightening recession concerns among traders. FOMC projections released March 18 held the median Q4 2026 rate steady at 4.4%, aligning with economist consensus for limited further rises to around 4.5% amid cooling but stable labor demand—evidenced by January JOLTS openings at 6.9 million and recent weekly jobless claims steady near 210,000. Key catalysts include the March jobs report due April 4 and April FOMC minutes on the 8th, which could signal policy shifts impacting peak unemployment trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$284,170Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The US unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February 2026, reflecting an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs amid widespread sector losses, marking a shift from prior modest gains and heightening recession concerns among traders. FOMC projections released March 18 held the median Q4 2026 rate steady at 4.4%, aligning with economist consensus for limited further rises to around 4.5% amid cooling but stable labor demand—evidenced by January JOLTS openings at 6.9 million and recent weekly jobless claims steady near 210,000. Key catalysts include the March jobs report due April 4 and April FOMC minutes on the 8th, which could signal policy shifts impacting peak unemployment trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$284,170Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February 2026, reflecting an unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs amid widespread sector losses, marking a shift from prior modest gains and heightening recession concerns among traders. FOMC projections released March 18 held the median Q4 2026 rate steady at 4.4%, aligning with economist consensus for limited further rises to around 4.5% amid cooling but stable labor demand—evidenced by January JOLTS openings at 6.9 million and recent weekly jobless claims steady near 210,000. Key catalysts include the March jobs report due April 4 and April FOMC minutes on the 8th, which could signal policy shifts impacting peak unemployment trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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